15 January 2002

UN Estimates Afghanistan Needs $15,000 Million Aid Over 10 Years

United Nations -- The reconstruction of Afghanistan is expected to cost about $15,000 million over the next ten years, according to an assessment of the country's needs prepared by the UN Development Program (UNDP), the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank and released to nations interested in helping Afghanistan recover the devastating effects of the Taliban's rule.

The purpose of the assessment is to help determine the amount of external assistance needed to support Afghanistan's economic and social recovery and reconstruction over the short and medium term. It does not cover humanitarian assistance. The assessment will be used at a meeting of donor countries and international development agencies hosted by Japan in Tokyo January 20-21.

Mark Malloch Brown, UNDP Administrator, said the anticipated costs increased from about $9,000 million over five years to $10,000 million after planners talked with the interim government in Kabul after it took control on December 20. The plan now includes more money for local security forces and to pay Afghan civil servants.

"Afghans say their number one concern is security," Malloch Brown said at a press conference January 15. "Policing arrangements make them feel safe on their street, in their neighborhood, in their village."

The second issue was the government's "empty coffers," he said.

"There are central bank vaults which are entirely empty," Malloch Brown said. "They are an echo chamber. There isn't a single Afghani in them...and there is no early prospect of the government securing its own revenue base."

The assessment includes $700 million for the first year and a total of $1,800 million for the first 30 months to pay the salaries and benefits of civil servants. The assessments calls for $1,700 million for the first year with an overall 5-year requirement of $10,200 million.

"In the first and second year we assume that all of its budget costs must be met by international donors. There will only be an incidental revenue base of its own. That tapers down so that after year five we assume that the government will live off the revenue it raises and we will only be doing investment activities," the UNDP administrator said.

The assessment is based on the premise that priority will be given to helping as many Afghans as possible reclaim their lives with access to health services, children -- especially girls -- going to school, and adults returning to productive livelihoods, he said. To this end, demining is expected to remain an important priority as is drug control. The interim administration is expected to play a leadership role in drawing up the priorities for the reconstruction strategy.

UNDP, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank have estimated that reconstruction will cost about $5,000 million in the first two and a half years with the 10-year figure at about $15,000 million. They also provided "low" and "high" case scenarios whose costs range from $1,400 million for the first year to $18,100 over ten years.

The challenge of Afghanistan development ranges from the reconstruction of infrastructure to the delivery of social services and the creation of an environment which allows the private sector to flourish, Malloch Brown said.

He emphasized the importance of funding the government saying that that the plan attempts to balance the longer term needs of the country, the practices of the donor community, and overriding imperative of helping the people and government of Afghanistan build a stable and viable country.

"There is a danger that the donors rush in and build a hospital and put their own flag on it; another donor builds a road which may make the people of Afghanistan very grateful to that donor and its people for building a road or a highway. But it will do nothing to achieve the absolutely central goal here of peace-building -- which is the link between Afghans and their government that needs to be restored," Malloch Brown said.

"It is important for Afghans to see the government as a source of services and good things in their life after 20 years of which there has been nothing but violence from the central government," he said.

"Unless we can give (Afghans) the resources to assert that ownership, there is a real risk that there will be a lot of fine, spanking new roads and hospitals but we will have failed to rebuild that critical social contract between people and government which is the key to the long-term stability and viability of an Afghan state," the administrator said.

"Half of the country is under the age of 20. Which means it has no memory of government delivering schooling, education, a national police force, running a reasonable civil administration that responds to the needs of the people.

Financing that government so that it can rise to the moment and fill those functions is critical to this," the administrator said.

Malloch Brown acknowledged that he does not expect donor governments to make more than a two-year commitment during the Tokyo conference.

"The 10-year estimate is nice, but that is way beyond the current budget/ planning processes of most governments. Indeed, most donor governments think in one- or two-year chunks," he said.

But with the assessment governments can at least look at the years beyond so they can start to make some preparation and some provision for donations five years ahead, the administrator explained.

"We wanted to get donors out of the stop/start of one- and two-year budget views and get them focused on a five-year estimate so that the...figure of $15,000 million is the critical one," Malloch Brown said. "It is important to realize that this doesn't stop after 5 years. It will continue."

The plan provides for the supply of seed, fertilizers, and tools along with other services to help the country's agriculture; restoring bridges, roads, and tunnels; getting air traffic services for international and domestic air traffic; repairing and improving the water supply and power systems, restoring radio broadcast services; rebuilding the school system; and reviving public health services.