*EPF202 12/21/2004
Armitage Says China's Peaceful Rise Will Be Momentous
(Deputy secretary also discusses Iraq, Iran, terrorism with PBS) (660)

The "peaceful rising of China" will most likely be the most important event on the world scene in the first half of the 21st century, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage says.

In a wide-ranging farewell interview with PBS' Charlie Rose December 20, Armitage said China's impact will be momentous, in terms of the energy it will need, the raw materials it will require, and the power of its growing middle class. Concerning movement toward democracy, Armitage characterized the Chinese view as one of opening its markets and economy first, raising the general standard of living, then slowly expanding personal freedoms.

Asked about the problem presented by Iran's nuclear ambitions, Armitage said the reason Britain, France and Germany were able to get agreement from Iran to suspend its nuclear program activity was because of the "very skeptical and cynical" U.S. attitude that Iran would agree to a complete freeze of its nuclear program. "I don't believe in the long run the Iranians will be dissuaded from this program, and we're going to have to consider all our options with our friends and allies," he said.

Armitage said he served in Iran during his military career as an adviser to that country's special forces, during the regime of Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi. He said his perception of Iranians as a people was that they were "quite ethnocentric, nationalistic and, indeed, hegemonistic." Iranians, he said, " think they're still at the time of Xerxes and Persepolis." He said Iran's leadership has "a great desire to be a much bigger player in the region," and that Iranian reformers have "the same dreams of glory."

The deputy secretary also said that Iran "is playing a dangerous game" in Iraq by trying to buy influence with Shiite clerics, but that he thought their effort would fail. He said Iran wants an Iraq that is not only no threat to Iran, but also helps Iran to become the "world center for Shia" Islam. Concerning Iranian support for terrorism, Armitage said the United States knows that Iran is holding some former al-Qaida principals, though they have denied it, and probably is monitoring the terrorist group in Iran.

Asked about the situation in Iraq, Armitage said "things have become slightly more difficult" since the insurgents' loss of Fallujah as a base of operations. However, he said, they have intensified their program of intimidation through assassinations to lessen Iraqis' confidence in the new government. He added that the United States and its coalition partners are dedicating themselves to persevere in bringing elections on time.

Armitage said the U.S. decision to invade Iraq over the objections of France, Germany and others caused some damage in the relationships. But he added that Secretary of State Colin Powell traveled to Europe in December to repair relations, and said that President Bush would do the same when he travels there in February.

Concerning the prospects for peace between Israel and Palestinians, Armitage said, "We'll wait until January 9th" when Palestinians will vote for new leadership to replace Yasser Arafat. He added that Bush has said he would use his political capital "if the Palestinians can come up with a leadership that is worthy of the people."

As for terrorism, Armitage said the Palestinian issue was not a major factor. Instead, he said, the central element in the war on terrorism is the battle within Islam between enlightened moderates and those "who just espouse hate and death."

"There certainly is a struggle for the heart and soul of Islam," Armitage said. Different countries are taking different approaches, he said, mentioning President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan and King Abdullah of Jordan as two who emphasize moderation in Islam.

The full text of Armitage's PBS interview is available on the Internet at: http://www.state.gov/s/d/rm/39973.htm

(Distributed by the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

Return to Public File Main Page

Return to Public Table of Contents