*EPF404 10/28/2004
U.S. Senate Races Tighten as Election Draws Near
(Control of the Senate depends on nine states, expert says) (700)

By Carrie Lee
Washington File Staff Writer

With the November 2 general election less than a week away, races that are too close to call in nine states will decide control of the U.S. Senate, according to Jennifer Duffy, political analyst and managing editor for the Cook Political Report.

Of the 34 Senate seats up for election this year, four seats currently held by Republicans -- in Alaska, Colorado, Kentucky and Oklahoma -- and five seats held by Democrats -- in Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina and South Dakota -- are the most competitive and will determine which party controls the 109th Congress, said Duffy.

The majority party sets the legislative calendar and heads every Senate committee, so party control of the Senate is important, regardless of who wins the presidency. The majority party also controls the terms of debate for any issue considered by the Senate. Since Congress exercises exclusive power to pass legislation and approve taxation and appropriations, the Senate can play a deciding role in whether or not an administration can accomplish its goals. Americans elect one-third of the 100-seat Senate for six-year terms every two years.

The Republicans have an advantage as they seek to expand their current 51-seat majority in the Senate, since they are defending only 15 seats this year while the Democrats must defend 19, said Duffy. Also, 12 of the 15 Republican-held seats are in states President Bush won in 2000, while of the 19 Democratic seats, 10 are in states that Bush carried.

Democrats have sought to overcome this difficulty by recruiting centrist candidates in states that lean Republican, but Duffy estimates that the Democrats have less than a 30 percent chance of gaining Senate control. The main question for this election is whether the Republicans can build on their majority, said Duffy.

However, with nine races too close to call -- one week before the election, no candidate in these races has a lead outside the polls' margin of error of 1 to 4 points -- the control of the Senate is still very much in the balance, and dynamics of the races are changing daily. Duffy cites Kentucky, where polls changed this week to indicate a statistical dead heat, as an example of how volatile many of these contests remain.

According to Duffy, the closeness of the 2004 Senate races means that party mobilization on the ground will be crucial. As with the close presidential race, mobilization and voter turnout could be the deciding factor in which party will pull ahead. "It will come down to which party does a better job of getting their voters to the polls," she said.

However, the ultimate question of which party will control the Senate -- and by how large a majority -- may not be decided until December due to Louisiana's unique election system. Unlike other states, where primary elections determined the final candidates months ago, Louisiana will have an open primary on Election Day itself. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote on November 2, the top two finishers, regardless of party, will face a runoff election on December 4. Since no candidate has been polling above 50 percent, Duffy expects another runoff this year, as happened in the two previous election cycles.

Overall, the outcome of the 2004 Senate elections is unlikely to bring much change, according to Duffy, because neither party is likely to build a substantial majority in the Senate. "Regardless of who is in the White House and who controls the Senate, you will see much of what you're seeing or what you witnessed in the Senate for the last two years: very close votes and gridlock," said Duffy.

Divided party government is not uncommon in U.S. political history and can help to maintain the "checks and balances" system of making sure neither the executive nor the legislative branch of government can wield too much power. Evidence suggests that such governments are more productive and enact more sustainable policies than might be expected, according to Thomas Mann, political analyst at the Brookings Institution.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

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