*EPF305 10/27/2004
Voter Turnout Important Factor in 2004 Presidential Election
(Up to 15 million more people might vote in 2004, expert says) (620)

By Alexandra Abboud
Washington File Staff Writer

With the 2004 U.S. presidential election less than a week away, experts and pundits are scrambling to give the public some idea of what will happen on November 2.

Recent polls vary in their predictions of who is likely to win the U.S. presidency, but pollsters, pundits and both political parties agree on one thing: the statistical closeness of the race in many states means that voter turnout will be one of the most important factors in determining whether George Bush or John Kerry will win the election.

In the 2000 election, approximately 106 million Americans voted, representing about 54 percent of citizens eligible to vote. According to Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, it is likely that the 2004 election will be decided by between 118 million and 121 million Americans. This represents an increase of 12 to 15 million voters, with a likely overall voter turnout of 58 to 60 percent of eligible voters.

Gans does not believe that the projected increase in voters for 2004 necessarily represents a trend toward more Americans voting in the future, but rather is likely a result of what has been an intense and highly charged campaign by both candidates. The United States is seeing "a level of intensity that I have not seen in our politics since the war in Vietnam," said Gans. "If we go above 58.1 percent [voter turnout] we're at the highest since 1968."

Early voting appears to be having an impact on voter turnout as well. In Florida, a battleground state where early voting was instituted after the 2000 presidential election, voters could begin voting on October 18, two weeks before the November 2 general election. Thousands of Floridians have taken advantage of this early voting, and tens of thousands of absentee ballots have already been returned according to one southwest Florida newspaper, the Herald Tribune.

In Iowa, where voter registration drives have increased registration to almost 95 percent of all eligible voters, new measures have made voting almost effortless. The state's early voting stations have been open since September 23. Political parties are using state-licensed couriers to pick up and deliver voters' ballots, according to the news Web site MSNBC.com.

Aware of the impact that high voter turnout can have on an election that is predicted to be extremely close, both political parties have been reaching out to their base constituencies, the voters who consistently vote for the same party, to try to ensure that their candidate does not lose simply because his supporters failed to vote.

Gans predicts that there will be an increase in voter turnout in almost every demographic group in the United States. Specifically, the Republicans are looking to mobilize the 4 million Evangelical Christians who, according to the polls, overwhelmingly support President Bush but did not vote in the 2000 election. According to Gans, Republicans can also expect to see a turnout increase among military voters -- many of whom will vote by absentee ballot -- and rural voters. The Democratic party has been mobilizing registered minority voters and, according to Gans, hopes to benefit from the 10 to 20 percent surge that is expected among voters under the age of 30, a demographic group that some analysts say favors Senator Kerry.

Some experts note that nonpolitical factors such as inclement weather could deter voters on Election Day, but Gans disagrees. "The motivation in this election is so high that to the extent that people can physically do it, they're going to vote," he said.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

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