*EPF308 10/20/2004
Bush, Kerry Gear Up for Final Days of Campaign
(Candidates focus on states in which vote is expected to be close) (670)

By Alexandra Abboud
Washington File Staff Writer

National polls show a statistical dead heat between the two major candidates with less than two weeks to go until the 2004 presidential elections. President Bush and his Democratic challenger, Senator John Kerry, face a competitive and dramatic final stretch of their election campaigns.

The last of three presidential debates concluded on October 13 with a debate on domestic issues in Tempe, Arizona. The debate demonstrated the marked differences between the candidates and signaled the beginning of their final drive to Election Day on November 2. The candidates reached a nationwide audience during the series of debates, outlining both their foreign and domestic platforms, and are now -- along with their families and supporters -- devoting most of their time and money to winning the vote in the 10 so-called "swing" states that many experts say will decide the 2004 election.

According to a study by Nielsen Monitor-plus and the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project released on October 12, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are key swing states in the upcoming election, with both campaigns directing the bulk of their media advertising to these states.

"The end-game of this advertising battle is now purely about reaching the 270 Electoral College votes needed and focusing resources on the handful of states where the result remains in any doubt," said Professor Ken Goldstein, director of the project and political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. A candidate must win 270 of the total 538 Electoral College votes to win the election.

Voters in Ohio and Florida --states that the Wisconsin study has described as "the center of the advertising storm" -- have been the most inundated by political advertisements, because five of the top 10 advertising markets in this campaign are cities in those states. Many residents find the ads helpful -- but at times overwhelming. "The ads can be pretty influential in terms of focusing on the main issues that voters really care about," said Anne Marie Mulcahy, an immigration attorney in Miami Beach, Florida. "But at some point after hearing these ads day in and day out, I think voters get advertisement fatigue." In Ohio and Florida, the candidates spent over $19 million in television advertisements alone the week before the final debate, airing ads a total of 17,000 times.

Ohio and Florida together control 47 Electoral College votes, but heavy media campaigns are also taking place in states such as New Mexico and Nevada, which have only five electoral votes each. With the election generally predicted to be extremely close, campaign strategists are angling for every electoral vote they can get.

In addition to a media blitz during the last few days before November 2, candidates are traveling nonstop to reach as many voters in person as possible. John Kerry kicked off a nine-day tour of seven swing states -- Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Iowa -- on October 14. President Bush in the week of October 18 campaigned in New Jersey, Florida, Iowa and Minnesota. Both Bush and Kerry have made more than a dozen visits each to Florida since March.

Both parties also are focusing their attention on voter turnout and are organizing efforts to register voters, especially their core constituencies, to encourage them to vote early where allowed, and to help them get to the polls on Election Day if needed. In six states -- Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Wyoming -- voters can register as late as Election Day itself, making predictions of eventual winners even less reliable.

Groups that especially are being targeted by Republicans include Evangelical Christians, who experts say overwhelmingly support President Bush but had a low turnout in the 2000 election. Democrats are reaching out in similar fashion to minority voters, one of their core constituencies, especially in urban areas of the country.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

Return to Public File Main Page

Return to Public Table of Contents