*EPF311 09/08/2004
Presidential Candidates Use Recent Events to Sharpen Messages
(Polls, jobs report, deficit, Iraq war affect campaign efforts) (680)

By Rebecca Ford Mitchell
Washington File Staff Writer

With the conventions over and the election only eight weeks away, the presidential candidates of both parties used developments in the news to fine-tune their messages and step up their campaigns in several key states.

Since the close of the Republican Convention, President Bush has made appearances in Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, West Virginia and Missouri to push his domestic agenda of tax reform, social security changes, health care and business regulation, and funding increases for training and education. He continued to accuse his opponent, Democrat John Kerry, of being inconsistent on issues. Kerry, meanwhile, campaigned in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina and Ohio, emphasizing problems with the economy and the war in Iraq and saying that Bush has made poor choices that are taking the country in the wrong direction.

A new poll of 1,018 likely voters released September 6 showed Bush, after the Republican Convention, moving ahead with 52 percent to 45 percent for Kerry and 1 percent for third-party candidate Ralph Nader. In the survey, the president received higher marks than Kerry for the ability to handle terrorism and deal with Iraq, and for being a decisive leader. The statistical margin of error for the poll is plus or minus three points.

In addition to the new standings in the polls, several other recent events affected the candidates' campaigns.

On September 7, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office announced that the federal deficit would reach a record high of $442 billion in 2004, an amount $56 billion less than previously predicted. The Bush campaign said the lower amount is positive evidence that the president's tax cuts are working to lessen the deficit. The Kerry camp said the record shortfall is proof that the American economy is out of control.

Similarly, a September 3 report by the Labor Department showed that 144,000 jobs had been created in August, but that number was not as high as had been predicted. Kerry used the figure to bolster his call for tax incentives for companies to keep jobs in the United States and noted that almost a million jobs had been lost in the past three and a half years. The president said the report, and a national unemployment rate of 5.4 percent, showed that the economy is strong and getting stronger.

Also on September 7, the Pentagon confirmed that the number of U.S. casualties in the war in Iraq had surpassed 1,000. Kerry called it a "tragic milestone" and said, "We must never forget the price they have paid and we must meet our sacred obligation to all our troops to do all we can to make the right decisions in Iraq so that we can bring them home as soon as possible." The White House also paid tribute to "those that made the ultimate sacrifice defending freedom" and said that continuing the war on terror to make "the world a safer place and make America more secure" was the best way to honor those who died.

On September 6, former president Bill Clinton successfully underwent emergency heart by-pass surgery, but his expected six-week recovery period disrupted plans of the Kerry organization to have Clinton campaign for the Democratic ticket. Over the weekend, members of the former president's own political strategy team joined the Kerry-Edwards staff as the Democratic Party tries to regain its standing in the polls.

Finally on September 7, the Bush-Cheney campaign announced its team for negotiating the details of the presidential debates. The independent Commission on Presidential Debates is proposing three meetings between Bush and Kerry and one between Vice President Dick Cheney and Kerry's running mate, John Edwards. The previously agreed-to sites are all in states where the vote is expected to be close: the University of Miami in Florida, Washington University in Missouri, Arizona State University and Case Western University in Ohio. The first debate is tentatively scheduled for September 30.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

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