*EPF419 05/20/2004
Excerpt: NOAA Predicts Average Year for Pacific Cyclones
(Preparedness still necessary for four to five tropical storms) (1030)

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict that four to five tropical cyclones will sweep across the central Pacific Ocean during the 2004 season, a typical year. NOAA issued the prediction May 18, just before the season -- June 1 through November 30 -- was about to open.

The fact that the El Nino weather pattern is quiet this year will help keep the number of storms down in 2004. A NOAA press release says the years when El Nino forms in the equatorial waters of the Pacific produce a higher number of storms.

NOAA has devoted thousands of hours of work and ever more sophisticated technologies to its efforts to improve the accuracy of storm predictions in order to better protect public safety. The agency also urges residents in storm-prone regions to remain prepared for the strike of serious storms by keeping stocks of supplies and developing emergency plans.

This press release is available with photos at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2226.htm

NOAA also issued a prediction for the Atlantic storm season May 17, available at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2225.htm

Further information about Pacific storms is available at NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/

Following is the text of the NOAA press release:

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U.S. Commerce Dept.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NOAA EXPECTS NEAR AVERAGE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
Hawaii Observes Hurricane Preparedness Week: "Be Aware, Be Prepared"

May 18, 2004 ���� NOAA hurricane experts forecast four to five tropical cyclones to occur within the Central Pacific during the 2004 hurricane season. Typically, four to five tropical cyclones����one hurricane, two tropical storms, and one to two tropical depressions����occur each year in the Central Pacific. The hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and continues through November 30.

"Today marks the kick-off of national hurricane preparedness week. This is the time when we urge Americans living in hurricane regions to prepare for the upcoming season," said retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "The forecast we're announcing today is the culmination of thousands of hours of work by NOAA and its partners. What we are talking about has a potential impact on lives and safety."

"Many factors must be considered when making the seasonal hurricane outlook, including the status of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific," said Jim Weyman, director of the NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). "Data from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions can be expected through July. By way of contrast, in an El Niño season, there is an increased risk for tropical cyclone development in the Pacific Basin."

The CPHC, part of the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), issues warnings, watches, advisories, discussions and statements, for all tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific from 140 degrees W to 180 degrees W of the International Dateline. The center is activated when a tropical cyclone forms in the Central Pacific or moves into it from either the east or west. Although the greatest likelihood for hurricanes is during the hurricane season, CPHC continually monitors conditions to detect tropical cyclones throughout the year.

"NOAA investments in high speed computers, improved weather modeling and extensive Earth observation systems enable our scientists and forecasters to gather and synthesize information and begin the process of preparing the public to take action," said Lautenbacher.

This year, CPHC meteorologists are using a new technologically advanced tool to improve the accuracy of wind, rainfall and surf forecasts during tropical cyclones. Called Interactive Forecast Preparation System/Graphical Editor (IFPS/GFE), this state-of-the-art system has the capability to produce forecasts at a much higher resolution than in previous years, with user-friendly graphical and text products for public, aviation and marine communities.

"We tested IFPS/GFE during the recent hurricane exercise, Makani Pahili," said CPHC warning coordination meteorologist Nezette Rydell. "Forecasters gained valuable experience and proved they were able to accurately depict graphically an approaching hurricane."

Gov. Linda Lingle signed a proclamation making Hawaii a participant in the National Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 16-22), a collaboration between NOAA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and storm-vulnerable states to increase preparedness and safety among residents.

Knowing what to expect during hurricanes helps people make informed decisions about how to protect themselves and their families. To emphasize this point, the theme for Hawaii's hurricane awareness week is, "Be Aware, Be Prepared." Throughout the year, but especially during hurricane season, everyone should maintain an awareness of weather conditions and forecasts. To prepare for an approaching storm, people should develop a family emergency plan; learn evacuation routes and shelter locations; assemble a disaster supply kit with a flashlight, batteries, water, non-perishable food, and adequate medicine supply; cover doors and windows with plywood or hurricane shutters; and move loose objects and furniture inside. When the hurricane center issues watches and warnings, people should closely monitor radio, TV or NOAA Weather Radio for official bulletins of the storm's progress and instructions from civil defense authorities. "A hurricane or tropical storm watch means the potential of hurricane or tropical storm conditions exists for designated islands within 36 hours. A hurricane or tropical storm warning means hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected to occur within 24 hours," said Weymen.

The NOAA National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. The NWS operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy.

NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. NOAA is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Relevant Web Sites

NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

NOAA Satellite Images - The latest satellite views
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/

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(Distributed by the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

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