*EPF311 01/21/2004
A Look Ahead: The New Hampshire Primary
(Candidates prepare for January 27 race) (900)

By Alexandra M. Abboud
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- Since 1920, the New Hampshire primary election has occupied a unique place in the presidential campaign as the first official primary in the country. Those candidates who do well in New Hampshire gain substantial momentum for their campaigns that helps them in later primaries and may carry them to eventual success in securing their party's nomination at the national convention. This year, the primary will be held on January 27.

According to Charles Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Report, a respected political newsletter, "If you look at the last seven presidential elections," he says, "[of] the last 14 Democratic and Republican nominations, 13 out of 14 have gone to a candidate who won either the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary or both."

Presidential candidates understand the importance of the New Hampshire primary and direct their efforts there months before the election takes place. Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, Senator Joseph Lieberman (Connecticut) and Senator John Kerry (Massachusetts) all attended Independence Day parades in New Hampshire towns on July 4, 2003. Dean ran his first television campaign ad there in August.

Despite New Hampshire's small number of Electoral College votes -- the state has only four votes compared to 34 for Texas (270 are needed to win the general election in November) -- presidential candidates are aware that doing well in the New Hampshire primary can turn any candidate, even a lesser-known candidate, into a front runner. Former President Clinton, for instance, revived his viability for the nomination only after his strong second place finish in 1992. Clinton was the only candidate in the last seven presidential elections to lose both the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary and still go on to win his party's nomination.

New Hampshire is a geographically small state with a population of about 1.2 million, so candidates are able to meet directly with much of the electorate in local settings such as churches and schools. Such grassroots campaigning is not feasible in large states such as California and New York, where, in order for the candidates to reach large numbers of voters, they need to invest in expensive mass media techniques such as television ads. "If the first primaries were in California and New York, the person with the most money would win, period," an elected New Hampshire official recently said.

A prime destination for candidates is Dixville Notch, a tiny village in the most northern part of the state. The 23 voters there historically are the first to cast their ballot in the New Hampshire primaries, just after midnight. As such, Dixville Notch's voters pride themselves on having correctly chosen the eventual Republican nominee every year since 1968.

The latest polling results from the American Research Group show former Vermont Governor Howard Dean in the lead with 28 percent support in New Hampshire, Senator John Kerry (Massachusetts) with 20 percent and former General Wesley Clark with 19 percent. However, Kerry's first place finish in Iowa and North Carolina Senator John Edwards' second place finish are expected to give both candidates a boost in the New Hampshire polls.
Other candidates, such as Congressman Dennis Kucinich, and the Reverend Al Sharpton have made a few campaign visits to New Hampshire, but polls indicate that support for these candidates is very low among New Hampshire voters, ranging from zero to two percent.

A strong finish in New Hampshire for any of the leading Democratic candidates will put him in a strong position before the important South Carolina primary on February 3, which is the first primary in a Southern state. The results there may be an indicator of how other southern states with large African-American populations will vote in their primary elections. Also Democratic primaries will take place in six other states around the country, including Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Oklahoma. Candidates who did not do well in the New Hampshire primary will be under some pressure to make a good showing in some of those races.

President Bush will almost surely win the New Hampshire Republican primary, although the Bush-Cheney campaign does not currently have a campaign headquarters there, and the president has not actively campaigned in the state. Other Republicans such as Senator John McCain (Arizona), however, are scheduled to campaign over the next few weeks on Bush's behalf. There are 13 Republican challengers to Bush on the New Hampshire ballot, all virtually unknown. Many of these Republican challengers are single-issue candidates and are campaigning about trade and tax issues, to name a few.

As the primary draws near, Democratic primary candidates advocating their positions on important issues in an attempt to distinguish themselves from the Bush administration, as well as their fellow Democratic candidates. The economy will be the most important issue for New Hampshire voters. Nearly all of the Democratic candidates support some form of tax relief for middle-class Americans, arguing that the Bush administration's tax policies disadvantage that group. On this issue, the administration argues that their tax cuts have benefited the middle class and all Americans by increasing income.

New Hampshire shares an international border with Canada and relies heavily on export and high-tech industries, so trade policy and unemployment will also be significant election issues.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

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