*EPF504 01/09/2004
Poll Shows Most Iraqis Oppose Violence
(66 percent of respondents say coalition forces needed for security) (760)

By David Shelby
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- Iraqis are nearly unanimous in the belief that attacks against Iraqi civilians, Iraqi police forces and international organizations are harmful to the future development of Iraq, according to a November 2003 poll conducted by the State Department's Office of Research. Sixty-six percent of the people polled said coalition forces are needed in Iraq for security.

Smaller majorities expressed disapproval of attacks on CPA officials and coalition forces.

Out of 1,167 Iraqi adults interviewed in Baghdad, Basrah, Kirkuk, Hilla and Diwaniya, 99 percent condemned attacks on Iraqi civilians, 97 percent condemned attacks on police forces and 94 percent condemned attacks on international organizations.

Eighty-one percent of respondents viewed attacks on CPA officials as harmful to Iraq's future while 67 percent expressed disapproval of attacks on coalition forces.

Respondents in Basrah showed the narrowest majority of disapproval regarding attacks on coalition forces with only 52 percent characterizing them as harmful while 31 percent viewed them as helpful. Overall, 23 percent of those polled expressed a belief that attacks on U.S. forces are helpful for Iraq's future.

When questioned about their perceptions regarding the purpose of the attacks, 80 percent of Iraqis interviewed agreed with the statement that "The attacks are an effort of groups outside of Iraq to create instability in our country."

Only 35 percent agreed with the view that "The attacks are an effort to liberate Iraq from U.S. and coalition occupation."

Iraqis expressed uncertainty about the identity of those responsible for the attacks. The most common response among interviewees was that a mix of groups within Iraq and groups from the outside were involved.

When questioned about the likely perpetrators of attacks on specific targets, the most common answers were Saddam loyalists, terrorist organizations and radical Islamist groups. Other frequent responses included individuals paid to carry out attacks and common criminals.

Sixty-six percent of those polled agreed with the view that "The attacks emphasize the need for the continued presence of coalition forces in our country."

This said, it is worth noting that the level of confidence in the Iraqi police force is very high. Seventy-seven percent of those interviewed agreed that "In general, the local Iraqi police force is trusted by most members of the community," and 70 percent find that "The local police are accessible to community members to help resolve problems."

It is also worth noting that 86 percent of respondents indicated that they would feel safer in their neighborhoods if there were more frequent Iraqi police patrols. Only 33 percent of those polled reported seeing daily police patrols in their neighborhoods while 19 percent reported seeing patrols a few times a week.

Interviewees expressed more ambivalence to the idea of stepped-up coalition patrols in their neighborhoods with 41 percent saying they would feel less safe while only 38 percent said they would feel safer.

Sixty-two percent of the interviewees named security as the top concern in Iraq. In contrast, 18 percent said it was the economy and 14 percent said it was infrastructure repair.

Overall, 60 percent of those questioned reported feeling "not very safe" or "not safe at all" in their neighborhoods. The highest degree of insecurity was felt in Basrah, with 80 percent of respondents fearing for their safety, while a majority of respondents in Hilla and Diwaniya reported, to the contrary, that they feel "very safe" in their neighborhoods (65 percent and 71 percent respectively).

Residents of Basrah also expressed the highest level of concern about the likelihood of attacks in their neighborhoods with 74 percent fearing such a possibility while the overall fear of local attacks among all respondents was only 58 percent.

Iraqis polled expressed a nearly unanimous belief that greater job opportunities would be a very effective way of increasing security. Eighty-three percent also believe that hiring and training more Iraqi police would improve the situation.

Seventy-nine percent of those interviewed believe that a transfer of political authority to an Iraqi government would bring greater security, but only 20 percent advocate the immediate departure of coalition forces as a solution to the problem.

In response to questions about how much confidence they had in the Iraqi Governing Council and its institutions, 65 percent responded that they have "a great deal of confidence" or "a fair amount of confidence."

The poll was carried out between November 19 and 28, 2003, before the capture of Saddam Hussein.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

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