*EPF105 10/06/2003
Iraq's Power Generation Approaches Pre-War Level
(USAID's Natsios says systemic stability remains a challenge) (640)

By David Shelby
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- Iraq's power generation capacity has now exceeded 4,000 MW according to statements from USAID Administrator Andrew Natsios in an October 3 press briefing. This brings total capacity back to 90 percent of its pre-war level of 4,400 MW.

Responding to reporters' questions about why the restoration of capacity has not proceeded faster, Natsios explained that the quality of the facilities is a problem.

"I have never seen anything in such horrendous condition. The stuff is rotting out. I was amazed the stuff was functioning as it was," he observed.

Natsios explained that "we're taking the plants down that are unstable or on the edge of collapse and we're repairing them." He signaled, however that this takes time. "We've done a complete survey of the condition of all the generators and all the plants in the country, and the ones that can be fixed the fastest, that have a regular supply of gas or oil and can be fixed the cheapest are the ones done first," he said.

"The ones that have an erratic or unreliable source of energy cost a huge amount of money and will take two years to fix. [These] were put in the bottom and they were, frankly, triaged," Natsios explained.

According to Natsios' September 28 testimony before the House Appropriations Foreign Operations Subcommittee, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) and USAID have a goal to increase Iraq's generation capacity to 6,000 MW by the summer of 2004.

As Natsios explained to reporters at the October 3 briefing, however, the reestablishment of capacity does not necessarily prevent periodic power outages. Uninterrupted supply is dependent upon the transmission grid.

The transmission lines provide redundant links between numerous generation facilities and points of distribution to local customers ensuring that excess capacity from one part of the grid can be channeled to other parts in periods of high demand.

The problem, according to Natsios, is that transmission towers are being taken down. He indicated that a Bechtel survey in May found 15 towers down. Today that figure stands at 650 towers.

The USAID Administrator indicated, however, that almost none of this was a result of sabotage, placing the blame instead on a criminal group known as the Garumsha. "Apparently, they're sort of a criminal mob that's been around for a long time. They make their living by stealing stuff. They have no interest in politics. They don't shoot at our soldiers or anything. They're selling the copper from the wiring, and because of it, there's been such a flood in the market in the Middle East of copper tubing from Iraq's electrical system that the price for copper is now depressed in the Middle East," Natsios said.

He went on to explain that this does not necessarily prevent distribution but that it introduces instability into the system by eliminating some of the redundant links, thereby resulting in more frequent power outages in periods of high demand.

"Until we can restore those transmission lines, there will be instability in the system," Natsios said.

He noted one interesting result of this situation. Prior to the war, he said, Baghdad had 23 hours of electrical power per day. "No matter what was going on, they got their power because it was the center of a totalitarian state. Basra had an average of three to four hours. Basra now has 23 hours of electrical power. And the reason is [that] Basra has been de-linked from Baghdad because the transmission lines are down. So the people in Basra might not want the transmission lines back up."

Natsios indicated that dozens of black market copper smelts had been shut down in an effort to undermine this criminal activity.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

Return to Public File Main Page

Return to Public Table of Contents