*EPF211 07/29/2003
U.S.-Hosted Summit Aims at Forging an Earth Observation System
(EOS to remove crucial data gaps in understanding Earth systems) (1180)

By Jim Fuller
Washington File Science Writer

Washington -- Ministers and policy-makers from more than 30 countries will gather in Washington, D.C. July 31 intending to forge a coherent strategy for Earth observation and usher in a new era of global partnership.

The first-ever political summit on Earth observation, being hosted by the U.S. Departments of State, Commerce and Energy, will seek top-level international support to link thousands of individual satellites, aircraft and land-based data collection to create a comprehensive global observing system over the next decade to address environmental and economic concerns.

Attending the summit will be ministers from the G-8 and other countries that fund or use observing systems and are interested in the development of a coordinated Earth observation system (EOS). Senior officials from dozens of multilateral organizations, international science organizations and environmental groups will also attend.

Summit participants will also establish an intergovernmental working group scheduled to hold its inaugural meeting August 1-2 to begin preparation of a 10-year implementation plan for the Earth observation system. A framework for the plan will be presented at a ministerial conference to be held early next year in Tokyo, Japan.

Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere Conrad Lautenbacher, who will represent the United States on the working group, said at a recent briefing that an Earth observation system would provide critical scientific data to policy-makers around the world.

"Without sound science, no nation can make the sound policies essential to addressing complex health, safety and economic challenges," Lautenbacher said. "And it will take a collaborative effort. It is something the United States cannot do alone. It will take the nations of the world.

"We are getting people together to agree to have a system with which we can share data, in which we can build collaborations to help every nation do a better job with their management of natural resources and environmental issues."

The United States promoted a global observing system at the G-8 Summit in Evian, France earlier this year. In their final action plan, G-8 ministers called for strengthening international cooperation on global observation and listed specific activities, including the coordination of observation systems to produce reliable data on atmosphere, land, fresh water, oceans and ecosystems.

Lautenbacher said that the July 24 release of the administration's 10-year Climate Change Strategic Plan to address complex questions and problems dealing with long-term climate variability also underscores the need for a global system of Earth observation.

"Many of these questions cannot be answered without improving our ability to observe places in the world that we cannot see or even think about today, such as a major part of our oceans, big parts of the atmosphere, the Arctic and Antarctic, and certain places on our continents that are under-observed," he said. "So from a climate change perspective, EOS is extremely important."

Currently, a rather loose set of space satellites, ocean buoys and other instruments on land, sea and in the air are operated by individual countries and international organizations to monitor the Earth and collect data. These systems have evolved over the last four decades to allow us to forecast weather five days in advance, estimate crop yields, monitor water and air quality, and improve airline safety and operations, among many other benefits.

But experts say gaps or "blind spots" in understanding Earth and its complex systems severely limit scientific knowledge of how to address many concerns, such as drought, disease outbreaks, stronger agricultural production, and energy and transportation challenges. Issues such as climate change raise even larger questions about how the Earth functions and what the implications are for society.

"The United States and our international partners have made significant strides in putting systems in place to monitor the Earth, but crucial data gaps remain," Commerce Secretary Donald Evans told reporters at a July 24 briefing. "The complex systems of the world's oceans, which cover 70 percent of the planet and affect climate trends that impact every nation of the globe, are sparsely monitored and poorly understood."

Currently, a handful of countries have funded the joint deployment of nearly 825 ocean monitoring buoys worldwide. Called ARCO, these buoys regularly drop below the sea surface to take measurements and then send the data to satellites overhead. But to be truly effective and fill data gaps, experts say at least 3,000 buoys are needed on the water.

The upcoming Earth Observation Summit will seek support for connecting and expanding the disparate collection of observation platforms around the globe -- including land-based, airborne and space-borne systems -- for a wide range of uses in climate, weather, natural hazards and living resources. An integrated, comprehensive system, experts say, will add considerable power to the data collection effort and a quantum leap in our ability to predict and manage Earth system cycles and processes.

According to experts, a fully operating Earth observing system might look something like this: satellites with high-resolution infrared sensors in geostationary orbit will monitor clouds, water vapor, ozone and aerosols; satellites in near-Earth orbit will measure winds, clouds and ocean circulation; satellite microwave sensors and radars will measure soil moisture and ocean salinity, while synthetic aperture radars will measure earthquakes and rainfall; robotic aircraft will be deployed into severe storms; a linked network of global sensors on Earth will monitor radiation, air pollution, precipitation, soil wetness and stream flow; and robotic vehicles deployed beneath the ocean's surface will measure salinity, temperature and currents.

Lautenbacher said the benefits of a comprehensive Earth observing system would be enormous. For example, just improving the accuracy of weather forecasts by one-half degree Centigrade would reduce the annual cost of electricity in the United States alone by $1,000 million.

"With better observations in forecasting, the commercial aviation community could save about $1,700 million annually in the way they route airplanes and use fuel," he said. "With better observations, we would also know where the next West Nile virus breakout might occur and be prepared to counteract whatever the effects of that would be. We would know when to speed cleanup tools to the site of an oil spill or other environmental disasters."

Proponents of EOS point to the system of buoys and monitoring stations set up in recent years to monitor El Nino, the periodic disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific. While the economies of many countries were hit hard by the disruptive weather connected with the phenomenon in 1982 and 1983, early warnings from the new monitoring system helped farmers and emergency crews to be better prepared when El Nino struck again in 1997 and 1998. Benefits to U.S. agriculture alone, from altering planning decisions during the 1997-98 El Nino event, are estimated at $265-$300 million. EOS is meant to build on this sort of experience by linking different countries' national and regional monitoring systems together.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

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