*EPF118 01/27/2003
Panelists See North Korea's Choices as Weapons or Aid
(North Korea's path dominates U.S.-ROK conference) (530)

By Kristofer Angle
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- Whither North Korea?

That was the question posed at a conference January 23 commemorating the 50th anniversary of U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) alliance, sponsored by the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of the Johns Hopkins University.

Panelists at the conference presented a number of different approaches to better understand the situation in North Korea.

According to the CIA World Factbook, Kim Jong-il, or "Dear Leader" as North Koreans know him, has led North Korea since his father Kim Il-sung, who ruled the country for almost 50 years, died in 1994. After decades of mismanagement, North Korea relies almost entirely on international aid to feed its people, while continuing to expend its resources to maintain a large army of about one million and acquire weapons of mass destruction.

Panelist John Merrill, a foreign affairs analyst for the Department of State, sketched two conflicting views of North Korea's nuclear program in his presentation. The first, he said, is that North Korea is "hell-bent" on acquiring a nuclear deterrent, regardless of cost, to increase its leverage in the international security arena.

The second view, Merrill said, is that Pyongyang is only using the threat of a nuclear program for diplomatic leverage to deter the prospect of invasion while ensuring the continued flow of foreign assistance.

Meanwhile, he said, the Bush administration has maintained that negotiations with North Korea will not take place under the threat of nuclear weapons.

It is clear, Merrill said, that North Korea must choose between developing weapons of mass destruction and reforming its economy. International assistance is contingent on the latter, while the former almost guarantees that assistance will be cut off.

For nearly a decade, he said, the international community has distributed food and supplies to North Korea to prevent a humanitarian disaster brought on by years of famine and economic malaise. However, Merrill continued, since this crisis has continued unabated since 1995, fewer and fewer countries are willing to help.

North Korea received nearly $300 million in food aid from United States, South Korea, Japan, and the European Union in 2001. China and the United Nations have also given substantial assistance to North Korea.

Another panelist, William Brown, senior international economist for the U.S. Department of Commerce, explained that economic indicators show the North Korean economy is worsening by the day. Since July 2002, the North Korean won's value has tumbled and inflation is rampant. The economy, he said, has fallen to the point where bartering is the preferred means of commerce.

Brown likened North Korea to a bankrupt corporation without credit. Its economy, he said, is completely dependent on foreign aid, most of which comes from China. Unfortunately, Brown explained, this aid has not only prolonged the Kim Jong-il regime, but has also destroyed the native agriculture industry by flooding the market with free food.

There was a consensus among panelists at the conference that if progress is not made toward resolving this situation, the next conference will be about how to live with a nuclear North Korea.

(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

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