Department of State Washington File: Text: U.S. Projected to Become More Dependent on Foreign Oil, Gas

*EPF316 11/20/2002
Text: U.S. Projected to Become More Dependent on Foreign Oil, Gas
(Demand driven by transportation, power-generation, Energy Dept. says) (1750)

The Energy Department projects that the United States will become increasingly dependent on foreign supplies of oil and natural gas in the next two decades.

The Energy Outlook 2003, an annual projection of U.S. energy demand, says that total U.S. energy consumption will rise by one third between 2001 and 2025, the period covered by the forecast.

However, demand for petroleum is forecast to increase faster, by almost 50 percent, while supply of domestic oil is projected to remain roughly flat, according to a November 20 news release previewing the report by the Energy Information Administration (EAI), a research unit of the Energy Department.

To close the gap, the United States will need to rely more on oil imports, which are forecast to surge from 55 percent to 68 percent of projected consumption, EAI said.

With demand for natural gas projected to grow more than 50 percent by 2025, U.S. natural gas supplies will increasingly depend on large, new domestic and foreign sources, it said. Pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are projected to more than double, increasing their share of total natural gas demand from 15 to 22 percent, EAI added.

Meeting demand for increased natural gas imports will depend on expanding the four existing LNG terminals and constructing three additional ones in the United States, as well as on completing a gas pipeline in Canada, according to EAI.

EAI said that increased demand for oil would be driven mostly by the transportation sector and higher demand for natural gas by the power-generation industry, which is forecast to rely increasingly on natural gas to produce electricity.

The release also highlights some of the trends described in the report, including:

--The energy efficiency of the economy increasing at an average 1.5-percent annual rate;

-- Carbon dioxide emissions growing at an average 1.5-percent annual rate;

-- The share of renewable sources in total electricity generation rising by 1 percent between 2001 and 2025.

Following is the text of the news release:

(begin text)

Energy Information Administration
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
November 20, 2002

New EIA Forecast Through 2025 Expects Growing Natural Gas Demand to Depend on New Sources of Natural Gas Supply

With natural gas demand projected to grow 54 percent by 2025, U.S. natural gas supplies will increasingly depend on large, new domestic and imported supply projects, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which today released the reference case forecast from its Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003).

Growth in domestic natural gas supplies will primarily depend on two sources: increased unconventional natural gas production (e.g., tight sands, coalbed methane, shale), much of it out of the Rocky Mountain region, and construction of an Alaskan natural gas pipeline that delivers gas supplies to the lower-48 States starting in 2021. Total nonassociated unconventional natural gas production is projected to grow from 5.4 trillion [1,000,000 million] cubic feet (Tcf) in 2001 to 9.5 Tcf by 2025. Total Alaskan production is projected to increase from 0.4 Tcf in 2001 to 2.6 Tcf by 2025.

Growth in imported natural gas supplies will depend on expansion of LNG imports and pipeline imports from Canada. Including both pipeline imports and LNG, total net natural gas imports are projected to increase from 3.6 Tcf in 2001 to 7.8 Tcf by 2025, meeting 22 percent of total natural gas demand in 2025.

The AEO2003 forecasts that the 4 existing U.S. LNG terminals (Everett, Massachusetts; Cove Point, Maryland; Elba Island, Georgia; and Lake Charles, Louisiana) will expand and 3 additional facilities will be built in the lower-48 States serving Florida and the Gulf states. AEO2003 forecasts that another facility will be built in Baja California, Mexico, predominantly serving the California market. Total net LNG imports are projected to increase from 0.2 Tcf in 2001 to 2.1 Tcf by 2025.

Growth in pipeline imports from Canada is, in part, dependent on the projected completion of the MacKenzie Delta pipeline. AEO2003 forecasts that the MacKenzie Delta pipeline will be completed in 2016 and expanded in 2023. The initial full flow rate into Alberta is assumed to be 1.5 Bcf per day.

Natural gas prices are projected to increase in an uneven fashion due to the completion of new natural gas projects such as the Alaskan pipeline and LNG facilities. For example, at full capacity, flow from the Alaskan pipeline is expected to be 4.5 billion [1,000 million] cubic feet (Bcf) per day (about 1.6 Tcf per year). This sharp increase in supply is expected to drive prices down. However, the impact should be short-lived as markets adjust and demand increases. Despite the short-term impact, average natural gas prices are projected to move higher as technology improvements and new supply sources prove unable to completely offset the effects of resource depletion and increased demand. Annual average Lower-48 natural gas wellhead prices are initially projected to decline from the high levels of 2001, falling to $2.75 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in 2002 (2001 dollars). After 2002, gas prices are projected to move higher reaching $3.90 per mcf by 2025. In nominal dollars, this is equivalent to $7.06 per mcf.

Other forecast highlights include:

-- The U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent from 2001 to 2025. Total energy demand is projected to increase from 97.3 to 139.1 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) between 2001 and 2025, an average annual increase of 1.5 percent.

-- The energy intensity of the U.S. economy, measured as energy used per dollar of GDP, is projected to decline at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent through 2025, as continued efficiency gains and structural shifts in the economy offset growth in the demand for energy services. Per capita energy use is projected to increase in the forecast, with growth in demand for energy services only partially offset by efficiency gains. Per capita energy use increases by 0.7 percent per year between 2001 and 2025.

-- The average world oil price is projected to increase from $22.01 per barrel (2001 dollars) in 2001 to $26.57 per barrel by 2025, largely due to the impact of higher projected world oil demand. In nominal dollars, the average world oil price reaches $48.11 per barrel in 2025.

-- U.S. petroleum demand is expected to become increasingly dependent on imports. Net petroleum imports, including both crude oil and refined products, are expected to account for 68 percent of total petroleum demand by 2025, up from 55 percent in 2001. Further, despite an expected increase in domestic petroleum refinery distillation capacity of 3 million barrels per day by 2025, the AEO2003 also forecasts a strong growth in net refined petroleum product imports due to constraints on expanding the capacity of U.S. refineries. Refined product imports are expected to account for a growing portion of total net petroleum imports, increasing from 15 percent in 2001 to 34 percent by 2025.

-- While the share of electricity generated with natural gas is projected to increase from 17 percent in 2001 to 29 percent in 2025, coal remains the primary fuel for electricity generation through 2025. The coal share is projected to decline from 52 percent in 2001 to a still dominant 48 percent in 2025. Seventy-four gigawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity are expected to be constructed between 2001 and 2025.

-- While no new nuclear plants have been built in many years in the U.S., the existing facilities have substantially improved their performance and reduced operating costs. Further, it has become common practice to request extension of the operating licenses of nuclear plants from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). A more recent phenomenon has been uprating of nuclear plant capacity. The AEO2003 includes consideration of these trends, which help to reverse the decline in nuclear capacity and generation shown in previous forecasts. Total nuclear capacity is projected to increase from 98.2 gigawatts in 2001 to a peak of 100.4 gigawatts by 2006 as a result of uprates before declining to 99.6 gigawatts by 2025.

-- Total renewable electricity generation, including combined heat and power (CHP), is projected to increase from 298 billion kilowatt-hours in 2001 to 495 billion kilowatt-hours by 2025, an increase of 2.1 percent per year. Renewable technologies are projected to grow slowly because of the relatively low costs of fossil-fired generation and because competitive electricity markets favor less capital-intensive natural gas technologies over coal and baseload renewables in the competition for new capacity. State renewable portfolio standards, which specify a minimum share of generation or sales from renewable sources, are considered in the forecast as are extension of the Federal Production Tax Credit for wind and biomass.

-- Average real (2001 dollars) electricity prices are projected to decline from 7.3 cents per kilowatthour in 2001 to a low of 6.3 cents per kilowatthour by 2007 due to cost reductions in an increasingly competitive market faced with excess generating capacity resulting from the recent boom in construction and the continued decline in coal prices. After 2007, average real electricity prices are projected to increase by 0.4 percent per year as a result of rising natural gas prices and a growing need for new generating capacity to meet electricity demand growth. Real electricity prices reach 6.7 cents per kilowatthour by 2025.

-- The projection does not include future policy actions that might be taken to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Thus, carbon dioxide emissions from energy use are projected to increase from 1,559 to 2,237 million metric tons between 2001 and 2025, an average annual increase of 1.5 percent. The carbon intensity of the economy, measured as energy-related carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of gross domestic product, declines at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent per year through 2025.

Reference case projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 and an overview of the results can be accessed on EIA's Internet site at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html. The full report, including projections with differing assumptions on the price of oil, the rate of economic growth, and the characteristics of new technologies, will be released in early January 2003, along with regional projections and a report on the major assumptions underlying the projections.

The report described in this press release was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The information contained in the report and the press release should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization.

(end text)

(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

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