*EPF305 11/13/2002
Ex-Inspector Calls U.N. Iraq Resolution a Wonderful Document
(Ambassador Rolf Ekeus' remarks to Washington Institute Nov. 12) (1010)

By David Anthony Denny
Washington File Staff Writer

WASHINGTON -- The former chief of the United Nations weapons inspection program in Iraq says the recently approved U.N. Security Council resolution that orders renewed weapons inspections in Iraq is "one of the most wonderful documents I've seen in my entire career. It's one that everyone likes, or almost likes."

Ambassador Rolf Ekeus, a career Swedish diplomat who was chief of the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) from 1993-97, discussed the new resolution (UNSCR 1441) at length at the Washington Institute November 12.

The resolution, passed unanimously November 8, calls for Iraq to disclose its entire arsenal of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and medium- and long-range missiles, as well as all of its development programs. Ekeus said the resolution "has considerable advantages," chief of which is its focus on Saddam Hussein's weapons programs.

"He's a serious problem with the weapons," Ekeus said. "Without the weapons he's diminished to a local thug ����quite insignificant."

UNSCOM was the agency through which weapons inspections were carried out in Iraq. It was replaced by the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC).

Other strong points of the resolution, Ekeus said, include its reference to terrorism (citing UNSCR 687), as well as its reference to Iraq's human right's record, although "I don't believe there is the ����stomach' to take on Iraq over human rights," as NATO did to Yugoslavia over abuses in Kosovo, he said.

Ekeus said UNSCR 1441has two essential elements: coercive inspections, and how to deal with potential violations. The preamble, he said, takes note of UNSCR 678 of November 1990, which authorized U.N. member states to use "all necessary means" to implement existing resolutions on Iraq; it also mentions UNSCR 687, which brought about the cease-fire in the Gulf War. Ekeus noted that no peace treaty was ever signed, so that hostilities ended through the U.N. cease-fire. The declaration of Iraq's material breach of the cease-fire, he said, implies in UNSCR 1441 that the cease-fire is no longer in effect.

The new resolution says that if there is a further violation, the Security Council should convene to consider what should be done. "It does not say there will be a new resolution," Ekeus noted. He added that the United Kingdom's U.N. ambassador has said publicly that there is no automaticity in the case of a violation. A second resolution, asserted Ekeus, can count on a veto from the French, "unless it's a massive and stupid violation by Saddam, which I cannot discount."

It's good that the new resolution doesn't stay focused on inspections, Ekeus said. "Process is important, but substance is what's good in this resolution," much better than in previous resolutions, he said.

Concerning the requirement for Iraq to make a declaration of its WMD programs by December 8, Ekeus said the first part will be technically easy -- to declare its well-defined weapons, missiles and production facilities. To do that much "Iraq doesn't need 30 days; they know what they have. They could do it in two days," he said.

The problem, he said, is a judgmental one -- "What should they omit?" -- knowing that everything declared must be destroyed. Ekeus quoted a phrase from Resolution 1441: "as well as all other chemical, biological, and nuclear programmes����"

"That's a wonderful phrase," Ekeus said. It could include plants that make detergents and other cleaning chemicals. The requirement to declare all facilities, components and materials involved "is a tall order," he said. It may require more than 30 days to report, he said. And "I would be surprised if one could start a war -- politically -- on the basis of this," he said.

As for inspecting presidential palaces that Iraq previously declared off-limits, Ekeus says the language in UNSCR 1441 is the same as in previous resolutions.

Ekeus defended the results obtained by his UNSCOM inspectors.

"I think UNSCOM inspections were highly successful," he said. "We found out about a major biological weapons program, which was destroyed in all of its essentials, before anyone defected," he said. Inspectors can do the job, he said, they can find all of the weapons in Iraq.

Ekeus noted that the inspectors' first report to the Security Council may state that they have found "zero non-disclosed items," since the report is due only 60 days after inspections are to begin. "My guess is that Iraq will very carefully design the (December 8) declaration," he said.

"I believe (Saddam) has been working hard on all of these (WMD) programs. That's a political, psychological assessment on my part -- I have no intelligence evidence" to go on, Ekeus said.

"Saddam is interested in power, not money," Ekeus said. "If he has (nuclear) weapons, Europe will be very polite to him; so will Japan. So will China," he said.

Saddam "will report what is difficult to hide" -- chemical weapons, for instance. "It's hell to store them, especially if you don't have high-tech" facilities and equipment, he said.

Also, Iraq learned much about what to hide during the previous inspections, Ekeus said. The most important part of the inspection program is the "brain work -- the thinking," he said. "My guess is that they (will) try to refine their process," he said.

For example, he said Iraq would produce a batch of nerve agent in a plant that normally produced rat poison or insecticide. Then they would clean out the facility and produce the insecticide for a couple of weeks, then distribute the products to farmers, and then go back and produce more nerve agent.

A good chemist can calculate how much legitimate product the facility should have produced, and then track the paperwork and the actual products to see whether it is all accounted for, said Ekeus. "But it's a time-consuming process, and it takes patience," he said. "It took us four years to discover a major biological program. Now we've had four years of (Iraqi) activity. Maybe it will take two years" to find the post-1998 programs, he speculated.

If inspectors report zero non-declared items in their 60-day report, Ekeus said, "We will come to a fork in the road. But that's over the horizon," he said.

(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

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