*EPF419 04/26/01
World Energy Consumption to Jump in Next Two Decades
(Strong demand expected in developing countries) (650)
By Kathryn McConnell
Washington File Staff Writer
World energy consumption is expected to increase 59 percent from 1999 to 2020, according to the "International Energy Outlook 2001."
More than half of the world's growth in energy demand is expected to be in developing countries -- particularly in developing Asia and Central and South America, according to the report, released this month by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), an agency of the U.S. Department of Energy.
Oil is expected to remain the world's main energy source through 2020, according to the report. While industrialized nations will continue to consume most of the world's petroleum products, the gap between developed and developing countries' oil consumption is expected to close "substantially." China and Pacific Rim countries accounted for half of the increase in oil demand in 2000.
Most industrialized country oil use will be in transportation, while in developing countries, oil demand will be in all end-use sectors as emerging economies shift from non-commercial fuels, such as wood, for home heating and cooking, to diesel generators. Car ownership is expected to more than double in developing countries over the forecast period. In China, vehicle growth is expected to grow five times between 1999 and 2020.
Other highlights of the report are:
-- After increasing from an average of $17.35 a barrel in 1999 to $27.60 in 2000, world crude oil prices will fall to $20.50 a barrel in 2003.
-- The Caspian Basin and deepwater West Africa will provide major increases in oil supply.
-- High world oil prices and improvements in industrial production helped Russia record two consecutive years of economic growth for the first time since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.
-- Natural gas remains the fastest growing component of world energy consumption. Gas' share of total energy consumption will increase 5 percent between 1999 and 2020, surpassing coal. Natural gas is increasingly in demand for power generation because of its environmental and economic advantages.
-- Because China and India rely heavily on coal and have significant coal resources, coal's share of energy consumption will fall only 3 percent. Almost 60 percent of the world's consumption of coal is for generating electricity. China uses coal in its rapidly growing industrial sector.
-- Most nuclear capacity growth will be in developing countries, especially developing Asia. Older reactors are expected to be retired in industrialized countries and in the countries of the former Soviet bloc with few expected replacements. France and Japan, however, are expected to begin operating new reactors in the next decade.
-- World electricity use will increase by two-thirds by 2020. The strongest growth will be in developing countries. In industrialized countries, electricity use will grow at a slower pace along with slower population and economic growth and efficiency gains of newer appliances. In April, the Bush Administration approved rules requiring clothes washing machines to become 35 percent more energy efficient by 2007 and air conditioners to increase efficiency 20 percent by 2006. However, a slowing of electricity demand growth in developed countries could be partially offset by rising computer use and new electronic devices. Growth in demand for electric power in the United State means that 1,300 new power plants will be needed over the next 20 years, according to a second April EIA report.
-- Renewable energy use is expected to increase 53 percent, although its share of total energy consumption will drop from 9 to 8 percent. Much of the growth in renewable energy consumption is attributed to large hydroelectric projects being planned in developing countries, particularly in India, China, and Malaysia and other parts of Asia.
(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Website: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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