*EPF412 03/22/01
Text: Expert Predicts No Danger from Mir Reentry
(Space station's descent controlled by rocket thrusters) (620)

Russia's Mir space station -- headed for an expected fiery ending in the southern Pacific Ocean on March 23 after spending 15 years in orbit -- does not pose a threat to any people, according to an expert on space debris.

A March 21 press release from Colorado University in Boulder, quoting aerospace engineering professor Robert Culp, says Russian scientists are controlling the fall of Mir with rocket thrusters and "should be able to drop it into the ocean with no problem."

Culp said the Mir situation is unlike the highly publicized crash of NASA's Skylab in 1979, when scientists could only predict it would hit Earth somewhere between Indonesia and South America. It wound up crashing in the Australian Outback, injuring no one.

Mir's remains are supposed to come down in an area 2,960 kilometers east of the southern tip of New Zealand, an oceanic region with no islands and little air and sea traffic. Most of the station is expected to burn up as it enters the atmosphere, but chunks weighing hundreds of kilograms are expected to reach Earth, according to reports.

The 135-ton space station, the largest object ever brought down from space, has been slowly sinking into lower orbits for months. In January, Russia sent an unmanned Progress cargo ship with extra fuel to Mir to guide it on a final controlled plunge into the ocean.

A Web site for tracking the Mir descent can be found at: http://www.peterson.af.mil/usspace/spacesem1.htm

Following is the text of the press release:

(begin text)

Colorado University

March 21, 2001

NO DANGER FROM MIR RE-ENTRY, UNIV. COLORADO EXPERT SAYS

Mir Space Station Crash? Not to Worry, Says CU-Boulder Aerospace Professor

The impending crash of Russia's Mir Space Station should be of little worry to Earthlings as it heads for an expected fiery ending in the southern Pacific Ocean on Friday, according to CU-Boulder aerospace engineering Professor Robert Culp.

Culp, one of the world's experts in space debris and orbital mechanics, said Russian scientists have been controlling the fall of Mir with rocket thrusters. This is unlike the highly publicized crash of NASA's Skylab in 1979, when scientists could only predict it would hit Earth somewhere between Indonesia and South America. It wound up crashing in the Australian Outback, injuring no one.

"I don't think people understand that one would have been in more danger of being hit by lightning in Florida than being hit by Skylab, which was totally out of control," he said. "In the case of Mir, it is still under control and the Russian scientists should be able to drop it into the ocean with no problem."

Even if Mir were out of control, "the threat to humans would still be very low," Culp said. "Two-thirds of the planet consists of ocean, and the odds of a satellite hitting a populated area are one in thousands, and of hitting a human, one in millions."

All spaceborne objects sent up by scientists to orbit Earth eventually come down, almost always burning up in the atmosphere, said Culp. "The real problem with space debris still in orbit is untrackable pieces the size of a pop can or smaller, which can threaten spacewalking astronauts, satellites and the space shuttles."

Culp has spent much of his career modeling the orbit and decay of such "untrackables." CU-Boulder has the only graduate program in space debris in the nation and has placed dozens of graduates in jobs with NASA and aerospace companies.

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(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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