*EPF506 03/02/01
Text: U.N. Press Release on New Global Population Projections
(World population grows by 77 million a year) (1520)

World population reached 6,100 million in 2000, and could climb as high as 10,900 million by the year 2050, according to "World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision," released by the United Nations Population Division February 27.

A press release from the U.N. Population Fund (UNFPA) says global population is increasing by 77 million people a year, a rate of 1.3 percent. Half of the annual growth is occurring in six countries: India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and Indonesia.

Population in the developed world is expected to remain steady in the decades ahead because of fertility rates below replacement levels, with most of the overall global population growth occurring in developing nations. Fertility levels in lesser developed regions are also expected to decline, but the new report has developed a range of projections, each based on different assumptions about whether the fertility rate declines or remains steady.

The findings project world population in an estimated range between 7,900 million and 10,900 million by 2050. The latest assessment conducted by the Population Division of the U.N.'s Department of Economic and Social Affairs projects a higher future population than was predicted when the last estimates were made in 1998.

The HIV/AIDS epidemic is factored into the projections and estimates 15.5 million "excess deaths" in the next five years in 45 countries most affected by the disease.

The U.N. report makes some optimistic projections with respect to increases in life expectancy. Currently, life expectancy in the developed world is 75, contrasted with 63 in the developing world. That gap may narrow in the future, according to the report's estimates, with life expectancy increasing to 75 in the developing world, and 82 in the developed world.

The UNFPA homesite is at http://www.unfpa.org/index.htm

The report is available in full in PDF format at http://www.un.org/esa/population/wpp2000.htm

Following is the text of the UNFPA press release on the latest world population revisions.

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UNFPA

UNITED NATIONS POPULATION FUND

News & Information

27 February 2001

UN POPULATION DIVISION ISSUES 'WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS: THE 2000 REVISION'

NEW YORK, 27 February -- World population reached 6.1 billion in mid-2000 and is currently growing at an annual rate of 1.3 per cent, or 77 million people per year, according to World Population Prospects: the 2000 Revision prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). Other highlights: six countries account for half of this annual growth: India for 21 per cent; China for 12 per cent; Pakistan for 5 per cent; Nigeria for 4 per cent; Bangladesh for 4 per cent, and Indonesia for 3 per cent. Also, by 2050, world population is expected to be between 7.9 billion (low variant) and 10.9 billion (high variant), with the medium variant producing 9.3 billion.

The Revision constitutes the sixteenth round of global demographic estimates and projections undertaken by the Population Division since 1950. These population estimates and projections provide the standard and consistent set of population figures that are used throughout the United Nations system as the basis for activities requiring population information. The main findings derived from the results of the 2000 Revision are summarized below.

The population of more developed regions, currently 1.2 billion, is anticipated to change little during the next 50 years because fertility levels are expected to remain below replacement level (1). However, by mid-century the populations of 39 countries are projected to be smaller than today (e.g., Japan and Germany are each 14 per cent smaller; Italy and Hungary each 25 per cent smaller; and the Russian Federation, Georgia and Ukraine between 28 and 40 per cent smaller in each case).

The population of the less developed regions is projected to rise steadily from 4.9 billion in 2000 to 8.2 billion in 2050 (medium variant). This projection assumes continuing declines in fertility; in the absence of such declines, the population of less developed regions would reach 11.9 billion instead of the projected 8.2 billion. Particularly rapid growth is expected among the group of 48 countries classified as least developed. Their population is expected to nearly triple between 2000 and 2050, passing from 658 million to 1.8 billion, despite the fact that their fertility is projected to decline markedly in the future.

The difference between the projected population in 2050 according to the 2000 Revision (9.3 billion) and that projected in the 1998 Revision (8.9 billion) is 413 million people. Higher future fertility levels projected for the 16 developing countries whose fertility has not yet shown signs of a sustained decline are largely responsible for 59 per cent of that difference. The somewhat higher recent fertility estimated in the 2000 Revision for several populous countries (e.g., Bangladesh, India and Nigeria) accounts for a further 32 per cent of that difference.

For 1995-2000, life expectancy at birth in the more developed regions is estimated to be 75 years. In less developed regions, life expectancy was nearly 12 years lower, at 63 years. By 2050, the less developed regions are expected to attain a life expectancy of 75 years, whereas in the more developed regions the projected level is 82 years, implying that the gap between the two groups may narrow.

The 2000 Revision indicates a worsening of the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in terms of increased morbidity, mortality and population loss. During the next five years, for example, the number of excess deaths because of AIDS among the 45 most affected countries (up from the 34 considered in the 1998 Revision) is estimated at 15.5 million. Despite the devastating impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the populations of the most affected countries are expected to be larger by mid-century than today. For the nine most affected countries in Africa (with HIV prevalence at or above 14 per cent), the population is projected to increase from 115 million in 2000 to 196 million in 2050. Even in Botswana, where HIV prevalence is 36 per cent, or in Swaziland and Zimbabwe, where it is above 25 per cent, the population is projected to increase significantly between 2000 and 2050: by 37 per cent in Botswana, 148 per cent in Swaziland and 86 per cent in Zimbabwe. Only in South Africa, whose fertility is lower than that of Botswana or Zimbabwe, does the growth rate of the population become negative during 2010-2025.

Although the probability of being infected by HIV is assumed to decline significantly in the future (particularly after 2015), the long-term impact of the epidemic remains dire. For the 45 most affected countries, the expectation of life at birth has already been reduced by nearly three years. By 2015, expectation of life is projected to stand at 60 years, five years lower than it would have been in the absence of HIV/AIDS.

Globally, the number of older persons (60 years or over) will nearly triple, increasing from 606 million today to nearly 2 billion by 2050. The increase in the number of the oldest-old (80 years or over) is expected to be even more marked, passing from 69 million in 2000 to 379 million in 2050, more than a fivefold increase.

In more developed regions, the population aged 60 or over currently constitutes about 20 per cent of the population; by 2050, it will account for 33 per cent of the population. The elderly population has already surpassed the child population (persons aged 0-14) and by 2050, there will be two elderly persons for every child. In the less developed regions, the proportion of the population aged 60 or over will rise from 8 per cent in 2000 to close to 20 per cent in 2050.

International migration is projected to remain high during the twenty-first century. The more developed regions are expected to remain net receivers of international migrants, with an average gain of about 2 million per year over the next 50 years. Because of low fertility, this migration has a significant impact on population growth in the more developed regions. Without migration, the population of more developed regions as a whole would start declining in2003 rather than in 2025, and by 2050 it would be 126 million less than the 1.18 billion projected under the assumption of continued migration.

A more detailed summary of the key findings of the 2000 Revision is available as World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision, Highlights (United Nations, ESA/P/WP.165, February 2001). This document will be posted on the Population Division's Web site at www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm. The full results of the 2000 Revision will be issued in a series of three volumes that are under preparation. For further information on the 2000 Revision, please contact Joseph Chamie, Director, Population Division, New York, NY 10017, USA,

(tel: (212) 963-3179, fax: (212) 963-2147, e-mail [email protected]).

(1) Replacement-level fertility is the level necessary to ensure that the population replaces itself over the long run. For most populations, replacement is ensured with a fertility of 2.1 children per woman.

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(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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