*EPF404 11/09/00
Brookings Scholars See Clinton Asia Visit as Highly Symbolic
(Major initiatives not expected from APEC, Vietnam visit) (620)
By Kerri DiZoglio
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- President Clinton's upcoming trip to the Far East is largely symbolic but could have considerable impact on the future of U.S.-Asian relations, according to the panel of experts speaking at a Brookings Institute Press conference.

Panelist Edward Lincoln, senior fellow at The Brookings Institution and former special economic advisor to Ambassador Walter Mondale in Tokyo, addressed President Clinton's participation at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings in Brunei.

According to Lincoln, APEC has become "bogged down" over the past few years as the attention of its members has shifted from its original philosophy of "open-regionalism" towards more narrow bilateral agreements between individual members on both trade and financial issues.

Although these bilateral efforts have been endorsed by APEC, Lincoln said this trend could ultimately undermine APEC as global and regional cooperation is weakened.

However, Lincoln added that a major statement could be made at the APEC talks if its leaders take steps to put a new round of World Trade Organization (WTO) multilateral trade negotiations back on the global agenda.

Clinton's highly anticipated second stop in Vietnam will also have major symbolic significance, according to Catharin Dalpino, deputy director at the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies and a fellow at The Brookings Institute.

Dalpino said the timing of the visit is especially appropriate as it could help solidify advances made in U.S.-Vietnamese relations following the normalization of relations and the signing of the bilateral trade agreement.

According to Dalpino, trade would be the biggest item on the president's agenda in Vietnam but human rights would inevitably need to be addressed, even if indirectly. Clinton's planned visit to a cathedral in Hanoi and a potential meeting with a group of students at an internet cafe will highlight the U.S. goals for greater religious and social freedoms in Vietnam.

The Vietnamese side, on the other hand, is likely to focus on the consequences of the Vietnam War, especially the effects of the defoliant Agent Orange, and an increase in U.S. humanitarian assistance to the country, she said.

However, Dalpino continued, any gesture Clinton makes towards increasing U.S. assistance will be modest so as not to be perceived as U.S. war reparations. She added that the war is "much more emotional for Americans than it is for the Vietnamese."

Ultimately, according to briefing moderator Don Oberdorfer, "the trip to Vietnam will be a tremendous signal to America that Vietnam is not just a war but a country too."

Although a visit to North Korea is not on the president's agenda for this trip, Joel Witt, guest scholar at The Brookings Institute and former coordinator of the U.S.-North Korean Agreed Framework, said that such a visit is still not out of the question at a later date.

Witt said Clinton might visit North Korea by the end of the year provided that the U.S. allies approve and there are prospects for productive negotiations on the North Korean missile program. Although human rights is an important issue, Witt said the initial focus of the dialogue should be on the security threat.

Kongdan Oh, senior fellow at The Brookings Institution, disagreed with Witt. According to Oh, a visit by President Clinton would not likely result in a positive outcome and North Korea needs to show greater commitment towards economic and social change before the United States engages in greater dialogue with the country.

(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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