*EPF505 10/27/00
Former Ambassador Says China's Future in State of Transition
(China, U.S. prepare for political, economic change in China) (530)
By Kerri DiZoglio
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- China's future will be determined largely by how its people and the rest of the world deal with the major transitions facing that country today, according to James Sasser, former U.S. Ambassador to China.

During a lecture October 26 at the George Washington Elliot School, where Sasser is the J.B. and Maurice C. Shapiro Professor, he called his three-and-a half years as Ambassador to China a time of "extraordinary change in China's relationship with the United States." According to Sasser, this new relationship will be crucial in determining how China will emerge in the global sphere.

According to Sasser, the three major transitions under way in China are the emergence of a new generation of leaders onto the world stage, its integration into the world community, and its adherence to the rule-based international system.

"The ultimate success or failure of these transitions are very much dependent upon policymakers on both sides of the Pacific," he said.

The first major transition that Sasser defined was the emergence of a new generation of leaders "who evolved not from revolution but rather from bureaucratic consensus." Sasser said that as a result of a more cosmopolitan education than their predecessors, the new leadership has a global perspective and views economic reform as the soundest approach to nation building. The key variable, according to Sasser, is "whether or not they have the wisdom to entrust the destiny of China to the people of China."

China's integration into the world community is another major challenge facing that country, according to Sasser.

"A strong, stable, secure and prosperous Asia cannot happen without a strong, stable, secure, prosperous and outward-looking China," he said. Sasser added that China's willingness to engage with Taiwan and its role in encouraging North Korea's engagement with the West show China's interest in global leadership.

"It is no exaggeration that these events signal an end of the Cold War in the Pacific," Sasser continued.

However, Sasser said, the success of China's new leadership and their integration into the world community will be largely dependent upon how they make the transition into the rule-based international economy.

"China's future accession into the World Trade Organization will be a force for greater openness and greater competition," Sasser said.

According to Sasser, China's transition from a planned economy to a market economy is being accompanied by political liberalization. "While the process is slow," Sasser said, "it is occurring, and China is more free today than ever before."

Sasser said that although the U.S. role in the success or failure of China's transition may be indirect, the United States can help to move China in the right direction by adopting policies that increase cooperation and hasten economic change.

The road to President Clinton's vision of a "constructive strategic partnership" begins with "constructive civil engagement," he said.

(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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