*EPF306 05/10/00
Transcript: Admiral Blair May 10 Press Roundtable on Security
(Taiwan Straits calm, with normal deployments) (5000)

As the inauguration date of Taiwan's democratically elected president and vice president draws near, the military situation around Taiwan is quiet with only normal deployments by China, Taiwan, and the United States, according to Admiral Dennis C. Blair, the Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Pacific Command.

"I can tell you, from the military point of view, the situation is very quiet," Blair said at a May 10 press roundtable in Bangkok, Thailand.

"There are only normal deployments by China, by Taiwan, and certainly by our forces," Blair added.

In a tour-de-horizon of the region, Blair also cited Indonesia, East Timor, North and South Korea as places where the United States has security concerns.

"Indonesia and East Timor are also areas that we are concerned with," Blair said. "We have forces in the peace operation in East Timor, as does Thailand and many other countries."

Blair suggested that perhaps the greatest "near-term military danger is Korea."

The Korean Peninsula, he said, is where "heavily armed forces face each other across the border with a very closed and difficult regime on the North Korean side."

The key for U.S. policy in Korea, Blair said, "is a strong deterrent posture of South Korea, the United States and other members of the United Nations who are committed to that country."

The United States, Blair said, has as its goal to "keep a secure environment" in the Asia-Pacific region, "so that trade, diplomacy, cultural relations can improve. I think we have the capability to do that."

Following is a transcript of the press roundtable:

(begin transcript)

PRESS ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION WITH ADMIRAL BLAIR
US EMBASSY BANGKOK
MAY 10, 2000

Moderator: We welcome Admiral Blair, Commander in Chief of the Pacific, and he's here, as you know, in conjunction with, but not limited to, the opening of the 19th annual Cobra Gold Military Exercise. He will have a statement to make and we can open it up for some discussion. Thanks.

Blair: Let me just quickly characterize the visit here to Thailand, and then I can talk about some of the other issues that important in the region. Then we can go where you want with your questions. But the visit here is in conjunction with the opening of Cobra Gold. I went down and participated in the ceremony yesterday. But also it's a visit to stay in touch with the leadership of one of our most important allies in Asia, Thailand, and I did have meetings with the Prime Minister, with the Foreign Minister, with many of my military colleagues here in the Thai Armed Forces: Supreme Commander General Mongkol and the leaders of the services and their staffs. (We had) good discussions of our military to military issues.

The Cobra Gold exercise this year is moving in a newly developed direction. We've maintained the core of it, which is the U.S.-Thai ability to work together in an interoperable manner in support of our mutual defense treaty. But this year we're adding to it a dimension of regional, multi-lateral peace operations, which I think are a way of the future. We have a part of the scenario, which is based on a non-combatant evacuation operation--pulling citizens of our countries out of a place where they're in danger. We have another part which is a peace enforcement operation, in which we work on separating belligerents under a U.N. mandated operation. And this year, in addition to the United States and Thailand, we have participation by the Singaporean Armed Forces. In addition we have observer teams from Malaysia, from the Philippines, from Australia, and later in the week, from Indonesia, who are looking at the exercise. We think that perhaps in the future these and maybe some other countries will also participate in this international aspect of the exercise. Because we think the way of the future is for the countries in the region to cooperate on these missions which are in our common interest.

Our thinking here is we are inclusive in this sort of operation, and our Thai colleagues agree with us, that these are the sorts of operations that we all will be conducting in the future. We all need to know how to do them. We've learned lessons from East Timor. We have been working on the ability to do this together, and we think that Cobra Gold and some of our other exercises can give us the venue to be able to do this better in the future. So, (we have a) good exercise underway in the next couple of weeks, and we look forward to building on it in future years.

The other areas that are important to my command in the region are clearly that the Taiwan Straits and, with the upcoming presidential inauguration, there's a lot of focus on that area. I can tell you, from the military point of view, the situation is very quiet. There are only normal deployments by China, by Taiwan, and certainly by our forces in this part of the world. And that's good because I believe that the solutions to issues in that part of the world have got to be peaceful solutions based upon increasing cross-Straits ties, negotiation, political and diplomatic progress, not on military saber-rattling and much less use of military force to try to gain advantage there. The long-term security and development of all countries in the region can only be obtained through peaceful means. As we move away from the election, as we look to the future, we certainly are trying to emphasize the non-military aspects of this situation, and to move forward. I think there're good prospects for doing that.

As we look to the south, Indonesia and East Timor are also areas that we are concerned with. We have forces in the peace operation in East Timor, as does Thailand and many other countries. I visited there recently and there's a long way to go on civil reconstruction. But there are lots of organizations there working hard and moving in the right direction. No one is satisfied with the speed with which it's moving because there's so much to do and such a long way to go. But I think the direction is correct, and certainly the military/security side of that seems to be creating a good environment so that the civil reconstruction can continue.

Indonesia itself, President Wahid is here visiting Thailand, so it's clear that Thailand and Indonesia are working together. We are certainly supporting the major reforms in Indonesian society, which President Wahid is leading. The ones of particular concern to us are the military reform efforts. In our military relations our aim is to support those sorts of reforms so that Indonesia can have the kind of armed forces that modern countries have that are under firm control of their government's, concentrating on external threats. Professionally trained people who do their jobs while respecting the human rights of the citizens and others in the combatant areas that they're working with, and who are properly trained and equipped. That's certainly our focus in dealing with the Indonesian armed forces. Right now our military to military relations with them are just barely beginning to recover from the actions in East Timor last year. But we look to the future as reform continues and as the work goes on in Indonesia, to be able to resume our relations with them and with the forces there.

The other area of the world where there's perhaps the greatest near-term military danger is Korea, where heavily armed forces face each other across the border with a very closed and difficult regime on the North Korean side. The basis for our policy there is a strong deterrent posture of South Korea, the United States and other members of the United Nations who are committed to that country. We think the deterrence remains strong. The presidents of North Korea and South Korea are going to meet in June, and we think that's a good development. (The goal is) to again turn the interaction with North Korea away from these moves of military brinksmanship which have characterized their behavior in the past, whether it be shooting missiles over Japan or threatening to withdraw plutonium rods from a reprocessing plant, or sending midget submarines down the coast of Korea and putting spies ashore. Turning from that to negotiating with their neighbors, whom they threaten about the issues of concern to both sides, we think is a good development. Meanwhile, though, we believe we have to keep our deterrence strong. We are reminded of this just in recent months when North Korea held the most active winter training cycle that they have in the last decade. This from a country that cannot even feed its own population; it is still providing the resources to its military forces to be able to go out and conduct large scale maneuvers with well-fed soldiers and equipment that works. We have to keep an eye on Korea, keep our deterrence strong, while we, and other countries in the region, negotiate with that country to change its behavior in ways that threaten its neighbors.

Let me stop there with individual discussions, but we basically feel that here in Asia the way ahead is to work together with the many countries militarily, which is my part of it, as well diplomatically and economically. Our vision is to attempt to build security communities in this part of the world that are groups of nations not interested in fighting each other. But (they) are interested in using their security relations to build a solid foundation for the economic and diplomatic and cultural progress which can benefit all of the lives of the people in the region. That's really what we're trying to do with the Pacific forces which I command. Let me stop there and find out what's on your mind, and see what questions I can answer for you.

Moderator: Thank you, Admiral. Please state your name and organization before your question so that the Admiral knows where you're coming from. Thank you.

Tom Crampton from Int'l Herald Tribune newspaper: You mentioned it very briefly right then, but if you could just sketch out the future role you see for the United States military forces in the region, and more specifically your command over the next five years. How it will be different from what it is now?

Admiral Blair: The role that I see is that while we preserve the strong bilateral military relationships that we have with individual countries. And that we ensure that we have the military capability to stand behind the five mutual security treaties that we've signed in the region, that we build on that for a regional multilateral capability to do a UN-sanctioned peace operation--everything from cooperation on basic things like search and rescue, countering piracy, countering the flow illegal drugs, all the way up to peace enforcement operations in which the international community has decided to bring security to an area that has lost it. Some of the ways that we intend to do this are by knitting our primarily bilateral exercise program into more multilateral exercises. I mentioned Cobra Gold, and I think that's a good example of the sort of advances that we can make. We also intend to take advantage of information technology in order to communicate better with the other armed forces in the region. Recently, in conjunction with other armed forces here in the Asia-Pacific region, we established a communication system based on the internet in which we can trade information related to common security concerns. (This includes) everything from a situation in the wake of a typhoon in a certain part of the region so that we can coordinate our humanitarian efforts, up through basic logistic efforts, if we are both sending forces to the same area of the world, up through policy coordination so that we can keep track of what others in the region are saying and doing. This communications net is a great improvement on what we have now when often it's fax and telephones and pretty archaic systems. Not as good as our kids can do when they go into their studies and hit the Internet and talk to their friends in other countries of the world.

So we see the way forward is knitting together these bilateral relations to build military security communities in the region. I think that this sort of attitude really transcends individual threats, such as North Korea. I don't think our security posture in northeast Asia depends on the North Korean threat. I think it's based on more fundamental security considerations than that. For example, when there's finally reconciliation on the Korean Peninsula, I think you will see a strong U.S. military presence still being welcomed by the countries of the region, and still being in our own interest.

I also see that this thrust is certainly not designed to contain any individual country in the region. There's been a lot of speculation in various newspapers about the United States trying to contain China, about India, trying to extend into eastern Asia, as part of a strategy directed against China. That is certainly not part of our vision for the future. We're seeking an inclusive security structure: one in which countries are defending themselves, which every country must and ought to do, and then countries reach out to cooperate on areas of common concern. We welcome China and other countries to join in that quest. The way forward I think is inclusive. It's more regional than multilateral. It preserves the bilateral sovereignty and defense, which is the right of every country, and it builds a security underpinning so that the sort of development in Asia in terms of information, economic and diplomatic progress can really continue.

Crampton: Taiwan Straits missiles, how much of a concern are they, their development of Chinese missiles, to you.

Admiral Blair: I think over the long term they constitute a threat to the people of Taiwan. They will ultimately affect the sort of assistance that the United States makes available to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act. As you know, we're obliged to provide for a sufficient defense for Taiwan under that act. That sufficient defense really depends upon what the threat is across the Straights. (The fact that) China adds some 50-odd missiles a year that are clearly targeted at Taiwan and capable of causing damage to Taiwanese citizens, infrastructure of that country and to a certain extent to their military capability, I think the United States has to take under strong consideration as it carries out its responsibilities. Again, I think the way forward in this part of the region is to bring the military build up and saber rattling and posturing down and the Chinese missile build-up across the Straights is certainly one of the things that I don't think is helping the long-term peaceful solution.

Crampton: What do the missile build-ups mean to your ships?

Admiral Blair: The missile build-ups do not threaten U.S. ships. They are missiles that are directed at land targets and can only cause damage to known fixed sites.

Bangkok Post: How useful are the Asian Regional Forum (ARF) talks to your vision of setting up security communities, and in what way is the U.S. seeking to enhance its role in that forum?

Admiral Blair: Many of the concepts that are raised in the ARF, I think, are very much in line with the vision that I talked about., the security communities for the region. And to the extent that the ARF becomes a forum in which practical measures are actually worked out and pursued, I would certainly welcome that. I think that in this region we're searching for the right forum to be able to move forward on, and my feeling is there are plenty of candidates out there. So that the sorts of discussions you hear in the ARF about cooperating against some of the transnational threats of concern with piracy, of concern with drug trafficking, of concern with the conflicting claims in the South China Sea and finding a way forward on that, I think are all to the good. They could mesh in well in the sorts of efforts we're trying to build on a military to military basis, based on our traditional alliance partnerships. I think they can work together.

ITV: Can you tell us about the U.S. relationship with Vietnam? Secretary Cohen was in Vietnam a couple of months ago. Do you think the U.S. will use the Cameron Bay later on? Military joint exercise?

Admiral Blair: Now that's a very good question, and Secretary Cohen's visit was excellent , as the first visit of a Secretary of Defense since the Vietnam War ended. It really put a period on one era, and enabled us again to look forward to another. From the military point of view our relations with Vietnam are very small. Students come from the Vietnamese armed forces to our Asia Pacific Center in Honolulu. Vietnamese representatives attend international military conferences, some of which are sponsored by the Pacific Command, others of which are sponsored by others, and we run into them there. Last winter when those devastating floods hit Vietnam, my command provided some relief supplies to some of the hardest-hit areas, as did many others in the region. So it's that sort of very minimal contact right now. I think we could move forward to a relationship with Vietnam in which we have a better basic interaction. We know who our counterparts are; when our armed forces are in the region they know how to talk to one another. We have names and faces and phone numbers and we move on to the basic exercises, such as being able to do search and rescue, humanitarian operations. Again, when Vietnam decides it's in its interest to join in these international operations that I've been talking about, that if they would join in that, that would be good. So it's really sort of a basic level, I think, of military interaction that's the next phase, and after that we can see. I should mention, though, the cooperation that we have had with Vietnam on accounting of servicemen missing in action from the war, which is very strong. Secretary Cohen visited these recovery teams, which are actually finding (deceased) American servicemen in the area, and then identifying the remains and returning them to their families. Vietnam itself had asked for help as it accounts for its war dead who are large in number also. So that area is continuing, and we intend to continue that until we account for everyone we possibly can there, and I expect that activity would continue. But just those basic communications I think are good and are a start for the future.

Financial Times: China, yesterday, urged Japan not to conduct military exercises overseas. I can't remember exactly, it said this would be unhelpful. What would be your reaction to that kind of statement?

Blair: I didn't see that statement directly, but Chinese warnings about Japanese activities are a pretty constant feature of their statements. I simply don't agree with it. I believe that Japan can and should cooperate in international relations that are directed toward the common good here within Asia and in other regions of the world. There have been small Japanese operations: everything from providing relief to Central America after Hurricane Mitch hit that part of the world to a Japanese Air Self Defense Force C130 that deployed to Timor to help with refugee return. Japan, of course, played a role several years ago in Cambodia supervising the election. I believe that a Japan which participates in a responsible way in these international operations is good for the region. I just disagree with that advice to Japan.

I also would like China to participate in the same sorts of operations. When I visited Beijing earlier this year most of the conversation was about Taiwan. It was shortly after the White Paper was published and there was a lot of very strong discussion on both sides of that question. But I also attempted to raise with China the many other areas in which I believe the interests of China and the interests the other countries in this region coincide. China imports large amounts of its energy from the Persian Gulf, (energy that) goes across the Indian Ocean through the Straits, up through the South China Sea and enters Chinese ports. China is certainly interested in the North Korean issues being resolved in a way that does not cause refugee flows across the Yala River into China or weapons being used in that region of the world. China has interests in the South China Sea which I don't think can be advanced without an international solution to the conflicting claims of both sovereignty and economic zones in that part of the world. You can't develop the hydrocarbons, you can't have a sustained fishery there unless all of the countries agree on how to do it. China's interest is served by supporting the South East Asian countries regaining their economic footing and their sense of common security in the region.

There are also a number of transnational issues that I think China should cooperate with everyone on. If you look at the flow of drugs coming out of Myanmar, the heroin is mostly going through southern China. When a heroin flow goes through your country, it's going to blast the lives of a lot of your citizens. I believe China should cooperate with those of us in the international community like the United States and Thailand and many other countries that are attempting to work against that scourge. I think China is threatened by international terrorism in the way that the United States and other countries are, mostly emanating from that area around Afghanistan and some of the other countries in that region where a combination of extremist groups and criminal activity are fueling the ability of groups to blow up bombs and kill citizens of countries in support of various causes. I think China has a stake in opposing that. China certainly has a stake in opposing the piracy everywhere from the mouth of Malaka Straits to the west all the way up to the northern South China Sea. Seamen are being killed, companies are being ripped off, and the seas are becoming dangerous. I think that China can cooperate in that venture. I believe that it's in China's interest to join with the other countries in the region who are trying to address these common problems, and ought to be the way forward.

Nation News: You were talking about countering the flow of illegal drugs. Is there a policy on the factions and warlords up north?

Admiral Blair: I hesitate to offer tactical advice on things like that. We are certainly supporting the efforts of Thailand and other countries in the region to organize themselves to deal with that flow of drugs. The keys are intelligence cooperation, proper training, understanding this complex system which gets drugs to the market and then attacking it where you can do the most good. There's a center here in Thailand, ILEA, International Law Enforcement Academy, at which officials not only from Thailand but other countries of the region are learning to be able to take the combined action that you need from all sectors of the government to combat this stuff. The armed forces play a role as well, both in the intelligence side and in some of the training side. We in the Pacific Command are providing that kind of support. We are looking at functional support and are looking at the countries here in the region and have the regional sense to put those together to combat this flow, whether it be amphetamines or heroin.

ITV: Is the U.S. concerned about arms build-up in Asia, especially India's plan to increase the military budget by, I think, 25 percent? In Russia (there is a) plan to boost to 50 per cent, the new President, Putin, stated. China also increases its capability. Do you think the hundred thousand personnel under your command in the Pacific can handle all of this?

Admiral Blair: The key to military capability in the future I believe is not so much individual equipment, but it's the human capability to link systems together, to pass information around the battlefield, to make decisions quickly. This depends more on the quality of the people in the service, the communication systems they have, the way that you train them and give them the roles to move quickly, than it does on the individual pieces of equipment. So where we are concentrating in the United States is on taking advantage of the information revolution to be able to move more quickly. I look most closely to the development of the human systems rather than an individual toy that some country may or may not be developing. When I look at those developments across the board, I feel that in the Pacific Command, with the sort of support that we are receiving from our armed forces, that we can maintain the capability to protect our interests very well. I think that as far as the eye can see, you'll see the United States as having the sort of military capability that we have right now. I don't see other countries in the region being able to challenge that power directly. So, I think we can support our fundamental missions, and that we can then cooperate in the ways that I described to try to turn from a military competition towards this idea of common security communities in which we're working for the main goals. The United States really is not looking to do anything but keep a secure environment here, so that trade, diplomacy, cultural relations can improve. I think we have the capability to do that. Then we can cooperate on addressing some of these other problems.

Bangkok Post: Why is Singapore being included in Cobra Gold this year?

Admiral Blair: The Singaporean ambassador answered that question yesterday at the press conference, in which he said that this development in Cobra Gold was very much in line with Singapore's idea of how it should participate in the region. It wants to be a part of regional initiatives to strengthen security in the region--in addition to the bilateral exercises that it has with countries and it has bilateral exercises with the United States, it has bilateral exercises with Thailand, it has bilateral exercises with other countries in the region. The idea of working together in a multilateral exercise with some of the partners that it already has bilateral relationships with fits into its concept of a security framework for the region. So it was a very natural progression. The other countries I mentioned that have strong observer contingents here, Malaysia, Philippines, Australia, and even Indonesia, I think have the same sort of motivation in terms of it fitting in with their defense plans. I believe their motivation is similar to Singapore's and I think that we will see them joining us in future editions. It's just that Singapore was ready this year, and I think the other countries will be more ready in the future. I think it's a pretty natural development for Singapore.

ITV: When do you expect the F18, the Super Hornet, to be in service, and the Strike Fighter?

Admiral Blair: The sooner the better, but I don't know the exact dates. We can get those back to you. The F18 is well along in development, passed all its tests. It's going into production and that's certainly going to be a mainstay in Navy aviation for many years. The joint Strike Fighter is a few years behind in development, from what I am been told by those who are in the development stage, that the progress is good and it's meeting its timelines. We can get you the exact dates on that. I think it's certainly pacing the capability that we expect of it.

Bangkok Post: Several years ago you had the idea of using Thailand as a floating base. Is this idea off the cards now?

Admiral Blair: You mean for stationing forces, and having forces based here? I'm quite satisfied now with the sort of relationship and support we have from Thailand. Right now we have 13,000 servicemen who are involved in the Cobra Gold exercise. They will be here from anywhere from two days to a month, and then they will leave. They are being well supported while they're here, and that works fine. We have exercises that come through from time to time, so I think that we have a good relationship that doesn't require a large base here in Thailand, and we can meet our objectives, so it looks about right to me.

Bangkok Post: I think there was an idea at one time to sort of have ships near Thailand.

Admiral Blair: I see what you're talking about. That squadron for which there was some consideration to be stationed in the Gulf in Thailand is now in Guam. If it were in South East Asia, it would be a little closer to the places where it might be needed, which is South West Asia, and so on. We would rather have it a little bit closer, but it's doing a fine job in Guam and we're satisfied with that.

Moderator: Thank you very much, and thank you, Admiral Blair, for joining us this morning.

Admiral Blair: Good to be here. Thank you.

(end transcript)

(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

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