*EPF506 02/25/00
USDA Revises U.S. FY 2000 Farm Exports to $49,500 Million
(Improved outlook based on increased global growth) (470)
By Merle D. Kellerhals, Jr.
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- Improving global economic growth coupled with economic recovery in Southeast Asia and Latin America have boosted the forecast for fiscal year 2000 U.S. agricultural exports to $49,500 million, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) says.

The forecast for fiscal year 2000 farm imports remains unchanged at $38,000 million, while the overall agricultural trade surplus improves slightly to $11,500 million -- which is still the lowest since 1987, USDA said February 24 in its quarterly agricultural trade report.

The revised forecast, announced during the February 24-25 Agricultural Outlook Forum 2000 being held in Washington, is still well below the agricultural export record set in 1996 that topped $59,800 million with a trade surplus of $27,200 million.

"Gains in value and volume of livestock and poultry products, horticulture products, and cotton primarily drive the overall 2000 export increase over 1999," the USDA report said. "Prices of livestock products have begun to rise, and cotton demand has strengthened. Low prices and strong foreign competition are preventing overall recovery in grain and oilseed exports."

The Western Hemisphere and the Middle East will be the main recipients of U.S. farm exports, "reflecting economic expansion in 2000 in these regions," the report said. Exports to Asia will remain largely unchanged from the previous year.

However, USDA Chief Economist Keith Collins told the Forum that the Southeast Asian economies are expected to grow 6 percent this year, compared with a 6 percent contraction in 1998. The Latin American economies are expected to grow 2.7 percent this year, after being in a recession in 1999, he added.

"Overall export recovery will be slow," he said, "as little import growth is expected from major, or formerly major, markets such as Japan, China, Russia or the EU (European Union)."

USDA said the forecast for exports of U.S. wheat and flour has been lowered by 1.4 million tons from the November forecast to 27.5 million tons -- valued at approximately $3,600 million.

"Wheat flour remains unchanged, but the outlook has deteriorated for wheat," the report said. "Strong competition in global markets, fueled by larger-than-expected, near-record Southern Hemisphere crops, has reduced U.S. wheat export prospects."

Following are some key figures:

U.S. Agricultural Trade, Fiscal Years, 1995-2000
(Year ending September 30)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Feb(E)

Exports 54.6 59.8 57.3 53.6 49.0 49.5
Imports 29.9 32.6 35.8 37.0 37.5 38.0
Balance 24.7 27.2 21.5 16.6 11.5 11.5
(Note: E = estimated.)

The summary and full report may be accessed electronically at http://www.econ.ag.gov.

(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Website: usinfo.state.gov)
NNNN