*EPF410 01/13/00
Text: Census Bureau on U.S. Population Growth
(Bureau projects doubling population by 2100) (1030)

The U.S. population could more than double in the next 100 years, according to projections released January 13 by the U.S. Census Bureau. The agency predicts the current population of 273 million will reach 571 million by 2100.

"The increasing number of potential parents and continued migration from abroad would be sufficient to add nearly 300 million people during the next century," said Census Bureau analyst Frederick W. Hollman.

Hispanics are likely to become the nation's largest minority group by 2005. By 2050, their numbers will grow from 12 percent of the population in 1999 to 24 percent in 2050.

The number of Asian and Pacific Islanders in the U.S. population is expected to triple, according to the Census Bureau, increasing from 4 percent today to 9 percent in 2050

Growth in foreign-born population groups is also expected to swell. That segment of the population is 10 percent today and is expected to rise to 13 percent in 2050.

Even though the Census Bureau offers an estimate of population 100 years from now, the press release does acknowledge that projections for the second half of the century are less reliable.

The complete population projection report can be viewed on the World Wide Web at http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natproj.html.

Following is the text of the press release:

(begin text)

United States Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

Bureau of the Census

JANUARY 13, 2000

Census Bureau Projects Doubling of Nation's Population by 2100

The nation's resident population could more than double in this century, according to national population projections to the year 2100 released today by the Commerce Department's Census Bureau.

According to the projections, the nation's resident population 273 million on July 1, 1999 is projected to reach 404 million in 2050 and 571 million in 2100. These results are based on middle-level assumptions regarding population growth during the century.

"Even though childbearing levels in the United States remain quite close to the level needed only to replace the population, the increasing number of potential parents and continued migration from abroad would be sufficient to add nearly 300 million people during the next century," said Census Bureau analyst Frederick W. Hollmann. "Because the Hispanic and Asian and Pacific Islander populations in the U.S. are younger than the nation as a whole and because they continue to receive international migrants, these populations will become increasingly prominent."

The data also show lowest and highest alternative projections. The lowest series projects population growth to 314 million in 2050 and then a decline to 283 million in 2100. The highest projects 553 million people in 2050 and 1.2 billion in 2100.

The projections do not take into account possible future changes in the way people report their race and ethnicity and, because of the length of time covered and other uncertainties, they are considered less reliable for the latter part of the century.

According to the middle series projections, the Hispanic population (of any race) would triple from 31.4 million in 1999 to 98.2 million in 2050. By 2005, Hispanics may become the nation's largest minority group. The percentage of Hispanics in the total population could rise from 12 percent in 1999 to 24 percent in 2050.

The Asian and Pacific Islander population, meanwhile, would more than triple, from 10.9 million in 1999 to 37.6 million in 2050. Its percentage of the total population would rise from 4 percent now to 9 percent in 2050.

According to the projections, the non-Hispanic White and African American populations would increase more slowly than the other groups. The non-Hispanic White population would rise from 196.1 million in 1999 to 213.0 million in 2050 a 9 percent increase. Its share of the total population would decline, however, from 72 percent in 1999 to 53 percent in 2050.

The African American population, according to the projections, would rise from 34.9 million in 1999 to 59.2 million in 2050 a 70-percent increase; under this scenario, the African American share of the total population would increase slightly, from 13 percent to 15 percent.

Between 1999 and 2050, the total number of foreign-born would more than double, increasing from 26.0 million to 53.8 million. The proportion of the nation's population that is foreign-born may rise from 10 percent in 1999 to 13 percent in 2050.

The population age 65 and over would grow from 34.6 million in 1999 to 82.0 million in 2050 a 137 percent increase. The projections also show an especially rapid surge in the elderly population as the surviving "baby boomers" pass age 65; in the year 2011, baby boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964) will begin turning 65. Between 2011 and 2030, the number of elderly would rise from 40.4 million (13 percent of the population) to 70.3 million (20 percent of the population).

The projections show that the number of children under 18 would increase from 70.2 million in 1999 to 95.7 million in 2050. However, their share of the nation's population would decline slowly, falling from 26 percent in 1999 to 24 percent in 2050.

The projections are based on assumptions about future childbearing, mortality and migration. The level of childbearing among women for the middle series is assumed to remain close to present levels, with differences by race and Hispanic origin diminishing over time. Mortality is assumed to decline gradually with less variation by race and Hispanic origin than at present. International migration is assumed to vary over time and decrease generally relative to the size of the population. Assumptions for the lowest and highest series are summarized in a working paper, titled Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100, HTML Version or PDF Version also released today.

This is the first time that the Census Bureau has projected the population to 2100 and the first time it includes information on the foreign-born population. The projections are presented by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin.

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(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State)
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