Election '02 Campaign Spotlight, No. 1

A Newsletter on American Politics

Issue No. 1                                 February 13, 2002

This newsletter is being provided on an intermittent basis by the U.S.
Department of State's Office of International Information Programs in
an effort to explain the "how" and "why" in addition to the "who,"
"what" and "when" of the 2002 election campaign in the United States.
The next newsletter will be issued in March.

This issue includes:

-- 2002 Midterm Election Overview
-- Campaign Trail "Tidbits"
-- Battleground 2002 Poll
-- Leaving the Senate
-- Leaving the House of Representatives
-- 2002 Senate Races
-- 2002 Gubernatorial Races
-- 2002 Primary Election Calendar


2002 Midterm Election Overview
By Stuart Gorin
Campaign Spotlight Editor

The 2002 midterm election in the United States on November 5, while it
does not involve a presidential race, nevertheless will be contested
against a backdrop of President Bush's war against international
terrorism and its effects on the U.S. economy.

Congressional reaction to the president's State of the Union address
showed that while there is strong bipartisan support for his war
effort, Democratic legislators are not ready to embrace his domestic
economic package and are expected to make this an election campaign
issue.

What will be at stake this year are:

-- 34 seats in the 100-member Senate, where Democrats currently hold a
one-seat majority following Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords' decision
last year to break a 50-50 tie by leaving the Republican Party and
becoming an independent;

-- all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, where the
Republicans have a six-seat edge; and

-- 36 of the 50 state governorships, of which 27 are Republican, 21
are Democratic and two are independent.

To date, three members of the Senate -- North Carolina Republican
Jesse Helms, South Carolina Republican Strom Thurmond and Texas
Republican Phil Gramm -- and 12 in the House have announced plans to
retire. Seven members of the House are running for the Senate and
seven others are running for governor, as is one senator, Alaska
Republican Frank Murkowski, who does not have to give up his seat to
run because his term does not expire until 2005.

The election cycle runs from March 5, with the first state primary
being held in California, to November 5, National Election Day and the
bipartisan Louisiana primary. The two biggest primary days will be
June 4, when seven states, including New Jersey, hold their contests,
and September 10, when voting will take place in ten states, including
Florida and New York.

Observers believe the major gubernatorial races will be in three of
the most populous states, where California Democrat Gray Davis,
Florida Republican Jeb Bush and New York Republican George Pataki all
face serious challenges.

In the Senate, where the Republicans are defending 20 of the 34 seats
at stake, Robert Smith of New Hampshire is considered his party's most
vulnerable candidate. He will face a strong primary challenge from
Congressman John Sununu, and that winner will go against Democratic
Governor Jeanne Shaheen in November. On the Democratic side, Tim
Johnson of South Dakota is considered the most vulnerable incumbent
among the 14 seats being defended. Johnson's Senate opponent will be
Republican Congressman John Thune.

Congressional seats are reallocated every ten years among the states
based on population determined in the census, and the states then draw
new district lines to account for new or lost seats.

Democratic officials say they see an opportunity to gain seats in
Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Louisiana and
California, offsetting losses in Pennsylvania and Michigan, for a
six-seat net gain. Republican officials, however, say they can net the
same six-seat gain through wins in Texas, Michigan, Pennsylvania,
Utah, Arizona and Nevada, offsetting losses in Georgia and
Mississippi.

If history is any indication, 2002 could be the year for the Democrats
to regain control of the House of Representatives. During the last 50
years, the party of every president in office suffered losses in the
House during the first midterm election, and this year the
Republicans' majority margin is only 222-211, with two independents.

However, because of Bush's popularity and intention to campaign for
Republican candidates, and the redistricting that is underway
throughout the nation following the census, Virginia Congressman Tom
Davis, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee,
predicted the Republicans have a chance to "reverse history" and gain
an additional 8-10 seats in the House.

A spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Mark
Nevins, retorted that redistricting gains will be "pretty even in the
end," and polls show the election going in either direction. At this
point, he said, there's no way to establish who's ahead.


Campaign Trail "Tidbits"

-- Election Reform: Officials in Florida's Miami-Dade County, where
Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore sought an Election 2000
recount, have approved installing laptop-sized touchscreen equipment
to replace the county's punch-card voting system. They said the new
machines will make it impossible to vote for more than one candidate
in each race and will alert voters who do not select any candidate.

-- Gore: After keeping a low profile since conceding the 2000
presidential election, former Vice President Al Gore has appeared at a
Democratic Party fundraiser event and was said to be considering
another presidential run. Party officials said he was "testing the
waters." Aides said he would begin making campaign appearances shortly
for Democratic congressional candidates.

-- Goode: Virginia Congressman Virgil Goode, who switched from being a
Democrat to an independent two years ago, said he would run for
reelection this year as a Republican. He said his district could be
better helped if he were a member of a major political party.

-- Hall: After meeting with President Bush, Democratic Congressman
Tony Hall agreed to give up his Ohio 3rd District seat to become U.S.
ambassador to the United Nations' food and agricultural agencies,
based in Rome. The position is subject to Senate confirmation.
Democrats will push for an early special election to fill Hall's seat
in hopes of having an incumbent in place for November, when newly
drawn boundary lines by Ohio's Republican-controlled legislature will
change the makeup of the district's population.

-- Largent: Republican Congressman Steve Largent was scheduled to
resign his Oklahoma 1st District seat February 15 to focus on his
gubernatorial bid in the state. Republican State Representative John
Sullivan, who won a special election in November, takes over Largent's
House seat.

-- Democrats: The Democratic National Committee has agreed to speed up
the 2004 primary election calendar in hopes of getting a quicker
decision on who will challenge President Bush's expected reelection
bid. Under the new calendar, Iowa will move up its caucuses to January
19 and New Hampshire will hold the first state primary on January 27.
All other states would be free to schedule primaries from February 3
on, which is five weeks earlier than during the 2000 contests.

-- CPAC: The Conservative Political Action Conference held its annual
gathering of activists in Washington and heard from numerous speakers
on conservative issues. A poll of the attendees indicated that
fighting terrorism was the most important issue facing Congress and
cutting taxes placed second. The poll also showed President Bush with
a 98 percent job approval rating.

-- Republican Strategy: President Bush's political advisers reportedly
have been telling Republican Party leaders that two main elements of
the White House model for winning elections are less reliance on
television advertising and more on person-to-person contact; and
emphasizing what the party is for, not what it is against.


Battleground 2002 Poll

The most recent bipartisan Battleground 2002 poll of likely voters
shows more of them identifying themselves as Republicans than as
Democrats for the first time in the history of political polling.

The nationwide telephone survey in January found 40 percent of
respondents calling themselves Republicans, 35 percent Democrats and
25 percent independent or members of minor parties. Last April, an
earlier poll showed Democrats ahead of Republicans 36-33 percent.

Battleground polls are joint ventures by Republican pollster Ed Goeas
of the Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake
Snell Perry and Associates. They asked respondents questions about
President Bush, problems facing the country, campaign issues, values
and which political party they preferred to see in Congress.

Noting that the survey gave Bush an 84 percent job approval rating and
an 80 percent approval rating as a person, Goeas said voters "know the
heart and mind of this president and they respond very positively to
it." He said 2001 was "an extraordinary first year" for defining Bush,
considering not only his role in the war against terrorism but also
his focus on the economy and moving major education reform forward.

Lake said that while Bush does have favorable reviews, voters are
"seeing his performance through the prism of the war on terrorism,"
and his ratings for handling the economy -- 67 percent approval -- are
"somewhat less positive." Lake also said there appears to be "little
coattails" for the president because "voters approve of both parties
in Congress and a solid majority (56 percent) want the president and
Congress to be of different parties."

The Battleground 2002 survey also showed that Bush received high marks
for bipartisanship, with 65 percent of respondents agreeing the
president has improved the tone of politics in Washington and 73
percent agreeing he has made significant efforts to reach out to
Democrats. There was a degree of irony in this last point, Goeas said,
because the loss of the Republican majority in the Senate due to the
defection of Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords last year helped set the
tone for Bush to make that effort.

Asked what they thought is the main problem facing the United States
today, 28 percent of respondents said the economy and 15 percent said
terrorism or national defense. The other answers were spread out among
education, crime, health care, Social Security and other issues.

In the generic question asked of which party's candidate would you
vote for if the election were held today, 41 percent said Republican,
39 percent said Democrat and 20 percent were undecided.

Goeas said the challenge for Republicans would be to keep intensity
high at election time in November. Lake said the Democratic challenge
would be to build up the support base and increase voter turnout.


Leaving the Senate

Phil Gramm (Republican), Texas Senior Senator, retiring
Jesse Helms (Republican), North Carolina Senior Senator, retiring
Strom Thurmond (Republican), South Carolina Senior Senator, retiring


Leaving the House of Representatives

House Majority Leader Dick Armey (Republican), Texas 26th District,
retiring
John Baldacci (Democrat), Maine 2nd District, running for governor
Thomas Barrett (Democrat), Wisconsin 5th District, running for
governor
Ken Bentsen (Democrat), Texas 25th District, running for Senate
Rod Blagojevich (Democrat), Illinois 5th District, running for
governor David Bonior (Democrat), Michigan 10th District, running for
governor
Saxby Chambliss (Republican), Georgia 8th District, running for Senate
Eva Clayton (Democrat), North Carolina 1st District, retiring
John Cooksey (Republican), Louisiana 5th District, running for Senate
William Coyne (Democrat), Pennsylvania 14th District, retiring
Greg Ganske (Republican), Iowa 4th District, running for Senate
Lindsey Graham (Republican), South Carolina 3rd District, running for
Senate
Tony Hall (Democrat), Ohio 3rd District, becoming a U.N. ambassador
James Hansen (Republican), Utah 1st District, retiring
Van Hilleary (Republican), Tennessee 4th District, running for
governor
Steve Horn (Republican), California 38th District, retiring
Steve Largent (Republican), Oklahoma 1st District, running for
governor
Dan Miller (Republican), Florida 13th District, retiring
Bob Riley (Republican), Alabama 3rd District, running for governor
Tim Roemer (Democrat), Indiana 3rd District, retiring
Marge Roukema (Republican), New Jersey 5th District, retiring
Bob Schaffer (Republican), Colorado 4th District, retiring
Joe Skeen (Republican), New Mexico 2nd District, retiring
John Sununu (Republican), New Hampshire 1st District, running for
Senate
John Thune (Republican), South Dakota At Large District, running for
Senate
Wes Watkins (Republican), Oklahoma 3rd District, retiring


2002 Senate Races
(20 Republican seats and 14 Democratic seats)

Alabama -- Republican Jeff Sessions seeks a second term
Alaska -- Republican Ted Stevens seeks a sixth term
Arkansas -- Republican Tim Hutchinson seeks a second term
Colorado -- Republican Wayne Allard seeks a second term
Delaware -- Democrat Joseph Biden seeks a sixth term
Georgia -- Democrat Max Cleland seeks a second term
Idaho -- Republican Larry Craig seeks a third term
Illinois -- Democrat Richard Durbin seeks a second term
Iowa -- Democrat Tom Harkin seeks a fourth term
Kansas -- Republican Pat Roberts seeks a second term
Kentucky -- Republican Mitch McConnell seeks a fourth term
Louisiana -- Democrat Mary Landrieu seeks a second term
Maine -- Republican Susan Collins seeks a second term
Massachusetts -- Democrat John Kerry seeks a fourth term
Michigan -- Democrat Carl Levin seeks a fifth term
Minnesota -- Democrat Paul Wellstone seeks a third term
Mississippi -- Republican Thad Cochran seeks a fifth term
Missouri -- Democrat Jean Carnahan seeks a first full term
Montana -- Democrat Max Baucus seeks a fifth term
Nebraska -- Republican Chuck Hagel seeks a second term
New Hampshire -- Republican Robert Smith seeks a third term
New Jersey -- Democrat Robert Torricelli seeks a second term
New Mexico -- Republican Pete Domenici seeks a sixth term
North Carolina -- Republican Jesse Helms is retiring
Oklahoma -- Republican James Inhofe seeks a second term
Oregon -- Republican Gordon Smith seeks a second term
Rhode Island -- Democrat Jack Reed seeks a second term
South Carolina -- Republican Strom Thurmond is retiring
South Dakota -- Democrat Tim Johnson seeks a second term
Tennessee -- Republican Fred Thompson seeks a second term
Texas -- Republican Phil Gramm is retiring
Virginia -- Republican John Warner seeks a fifth term
West Virginia -- Democrat John D. Rockefeller IV seeks a fourth term
Wyoming -- Republican Michael Enzi seeks a second term


2002 Gubernatorial Races
(23 Republican, 11 Democratic and 2 independent seats)

Alabama -- Democrat Don Siegelman seeks a second term
Alaska -- Democrat Tony Knowles is term-limited
Arizona -- Republican Jane Hull is term-limited
Arkansas -- Republican Mike Huckabee seeks a second term
California -- Democrat Gray Davis seeks a second term
Colorado -- Republican Bill Owens seeks a second term
Connecticut -- Republican John Rowland seeks a third term
Florida -- Republican Jeb Bush seeks a second term
Georgia -- Democrat Roy Barnes seeks a second term
Hawaii -- Democrat Benjamin Cayetano is term-limited
Idaho -- Republican Dirk Kempthorne seeks a second term
Illinois -- Republican George Ryan is retiring
Iowa -- Democrat Tom Vilsack seeks a second term
Kansas -- Republican Bill Graves is term-limited
Maine -- Independent Angus King is term-limited
Maryland -- Democrat Parris Glendening is term-limited
Massachusetts -- Republican Jane Swift, who is acting, seeks a full
term
Michigan -- Republican John Engler is term-limited
Minnesota -- Independent Jesse Ventura is considering seeking a second
term
Nebraska -- Republican Mike Johanns seeks a second term
Nevada -- Republican Ken Guinn seeks a second term
New Hampshire -- Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is running for the Senate
New Mexico -- Republican Gary Johnson is term-limited
New York -- Republican George Pataki seeks a third term
Ohio -- Republican Robert Taft seeks a second term
Oklahoma -- Republican Frank Keating is term-limited
Oregon -- Democrat John Kitzhaber is term-limited
Pennsylvania -- Republican Mark Schweiker, who is acting, is retiring
Rhode Island -- Republican Lincoln Almond is term-limited
South Carolina -- Democrat Jim Hodges seeks a second term
South Dakota -- Republican William Janklow is term-limited
Tennessee -- Republican Don Sundquist is term-limited
Texas -- Republican Rick Perry, who is acting, seeks a full term
Vermont -- Democrat Howard Dean is retiring
Wisconsin -- Republican Scott McCallum, who is acting, seeks a full
term
Wyoming -- Republican Jim Geringer is term-limited


2002 Primary Election Calendar

March 5 ------- California
March 12 ------ Texas
March 19 ------ Illinois
May 7 --------- Indiana
                North Carolina
                Ohio
May 14 -------- Nebraska
                West Virginia
May 21 -------- Arkansas
                Oregon
                Pennsylvania
May 28 -------- Idaho
                Kentucky
June 4 -------- Alabama
                Iowa
                Mississippi
                Montana
                New Jersey
                New Mexico
                South Dakota
June 11 ------- Maine
                North Dakota
                South Carolina
                Virginia
June 25 ------- Utah
August 1 ------ Tennessee
August 6 ------ Kansas
                Michigan
                Missouri
August 13 ----- Colorado
August 20 ----- Georgia
                Wyoming
August 27 ----- Alaska
                Oklahoma
September 3 --- Nevada
September 7 --- Delaware
September 10 -- Arizona
                Connecticut
                Florida
                Maryland
                Minnesota
                New Hampshire
                New York
                Rhode Island
                Vermont
                Wisconsin
September 17 -- Massachusetts
                Washington State 
September 21 -- Hawaii
November 5 ---- Louisiana  
                National Election Day

Newsletter Editor: Stuart Gorin, IIP/T/DHR
Fax:  202-619-6520, E-mail: [email protected]

(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)