Afghan Refugee Movement Limited So Far

(UNHCR estimates 1.5 million Afghans could flee) (600)

By Charlene Porter

Washington File Staff Writer



Washington -- The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports
that an estimated 1,000 Afghans each day have fled violence or famine
in their country since September 11 when terrorist attacks upon the
United States sent the Central Asian nation into a new state of
uncertainty.


An UNHCR representative speaking in Washington October 15 said the
number of refugees so far falls well below the agency's prediction
that as many as 1.5 million refugees could pour from Afghanistan -- a
prediction that John Fredriksson characterized as the "worst-case
scenario." The numbers are lower than anticipated in part, Fredriksson
said, because both Pakistan and Iran are attempting to keep their
borders closed to restrain the entrance of more Afghan refugees.


After more than 20 years of war in Afghanistan and several years of
drought, Fredriksson said Pakistan has already received 2 million
refugees; Iran has sheltered 1.5 million. Both nations now suffer from
"donor fatigue," the UNHCR official said. As a result, UNHCR reports
difficulties have arisen in negotiations with Pakistani officials for
further availability of sites on which to make preparations and camps
for the thousands more that could emerge from Afghanistan should the
worst-case scenario come to pass.


Fredriksson said UNHCR will have no capacity to respond to a "massive
outflow" of refugees without cooperation from Pakistani officials to
allow some progress on construction of refugee camps. The world "does
not want to repeat the tragic situation" of the Persian Gulf War,
Fredriksson said, when thousands of Kurdish Iraqis, terrorized by
their nation's army, fled to the northern mountains with no shelter,
no sanitation and little food.


The director of the U.S. Agency for International Development, Andrew
Natsios, has repeatedly emphasized that the best way to prevent an
overwhelming outflow of refugees is to move food supplies into the
country to combat drought-induced famine, now in its early stages. The
United States contributed more than $180 million in the last fiscal
year to that end, and the Bush administration has pledged another $320
million for the year ahead.


Natsios hopes that Afghans will not follow other refugees, but stay
home where experience shows their chances for survival are greater.


"The million people who died in the Ethiopian famine of 1985 died in
internally displaced and refugee camps because they were malnourished
when they got there, their immune systems had collapsed from
malnutrition, and then there were disease epidemics that spread
through the camps," Natsios explained at a Washington briefing October
12. "We can encourage people voluntarily to stay in their villages and
then try to move food into their villages rather than have them move."


The World Food Program (WFP) is the chief coordinating agency for
those food shipments into Afghanistan. The agency is currently trying
to move commodities across several different routes from warehouses in
Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.


Fredriksson said there is little scientific method for predicting
whether the Afghan refugee flow will remain at low levels or develop
into a human tide that would overwhelm the humanitarian resources in
place. The length of the U.S. bombing campaign, the fate of Usama bin
Laden, actions of the Taliban militia and the opposition Northern
Alliance are all unknown factors that could influence Afghans to leave
their homes and run to the borders.


(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International
Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site:
http://usinfo.state.gov)