Washington -- The number of anti-personnel landmines embedded in the ground is now thought to be in the range of 60 to 70 million instead of 80 to 110 million, as earlier estimates had indicated, according to Ambassador Karl Inderfurth.
The U.S. Special Representative for Global Humanitarian Demining says the new, lower estimate "is still staggering, but clearly more manageable."
At a September 3 briefing at the State Department to mark the release of a new edition of the publication on landmines called "Hidden Killers," Inderfurth pointed out that the best measure of the scope of the problem is "the number of innocent victims and the area of productive land rendered unusable by landmines."
He said the international community "should be focusing on victims and the economic impact as we pursue our demining efforts, not the aggregate number of mines pulled from the ground."
Following is the text of Inderfurth's remarks as prepared for delivery:
(begin text)
Hidden Killers 1998 contains some important and long-awaited good new about the global landmine crisis. With the demining experience gained in the last four years, we know that, with a sustained international commitment, the problem can be solved in a reasonable period of time, indeed we believe by the year 2010.
Whereas the previous editions of Hidden Killers (1993 and 1994) painted a picture of hundreds of millions of mines that would take generations to remove, we now believe that the dimensions of the problem are less than previously estimated and that international intervention does make a big difference.
For this edition of Hidden Killers, we systematically canvassed our embassies worldwide, international organizations, NGOs and other sources of information. We compared this latest information with what we had in earlier editions of Hidden Killers, and came to the conclusion that the earlier estimate of 80-110 million mines in the ground is too high. We now estimate that the total is closer to 60-70 million. That number is still staggering, but clearly more manageable to cope with.
We also conclude that the best measure of the landmine problem is not the number of mines in the ground, but rather the number of innocent victims and the area of productive land rendered unusable by landmines. In short, we should be focusing on victims and economic impact as we pursue our demining efforts, not the aggregate number of mines pulled from the ground.
The country profiles in this edition of Hidden Killers tell the story of how far we have moved forward in the most heavily-mined countries, like Cambodia and Afghanistan, were we have the most mature mine clearance programs.
In Cambodia, for example, we have seen how a strong and active Mine Action Center, with support of the Cambodian government as well as other donors, is making progress in demining. The strength of the Cambodian program is indicated by the significant drop in casualties from 1996 to the present. Casualties decreased from an average of 230 mine incidents per month to current rates of 100 per month. Still far too many but, again, an important step forward.
In Afghanistan, the UN, rather than the government, manages demining operations. The UN and demining NGOs have been receptive to different ways of accomplishing the task, such as using dogs. In some cases, depending on the terrain, dogs have been from 140 to 900 percent more effective than manual mine clearance operations. The dog program in Afghanistan has been so successful that it serves as a model for other mine-affected countries. Its success has also inspired private U.S. citizens to propose a public-private partnership with the United States Government -- the Canine Corps -- to increase the number of dogs available for demining worldwide.
Overall, our objectives must be to reduce the number of victims to zero and to return the maximum amount of land to productive use. In this regard, some dramatic results have already been achieved.
Namibia is a success story, where much of the previous mined land has been returned to productive use. None of its 10 identified minefields have been cleared since 1991, and the remaining site is expected to be cleared this year. Importantly, several of the cleared minefields are on valuable commercial land that has already been developed. In addition, Namibian casualty rates dropped 90 percent from a high of 64 victims in 1991 to zero in 1997. The success of the Namibian program has led Namibia's President to offer his country's expertise in training other Africans in demining.
Nicaragua is also a success story. Strong government involvement coupled with international cooperation and coordination through the Organization of American States and the Inter-American Defense Board has moved Nicaragua in the direction of being mine-free early in the next century. In fact, the OAS Secretary-General has announced the goal of a "mine-free" Central America by the year 2000.
Of course, many countries still struggle with a landmine problem. Some, like Mozambique, faced a lack of central coordination and demining programs have not been as effective. Even worse, one of the worst mine-affected countries, Angola, is experiencing renewed conflict, destroying the gains made by numerous mine clearance efforts throughout the country. Many other mine-affected countries also require increased international support -- funding, material, and expertise. Hidden Killers gives us a clearer picture of those states needing extra help to get the job done.
Clearly, we still have a tough road ahead of us. However, we have seen that international consensus exists -- to conduct surveys that will better define the scope of the problem and help us to focus our demining efforts, to increase assistance to victims which include some 300,000 survivors worldwide and the estimated 26,000 people killed or maimed each year, and to cooperate on technology development so that we can make the task of global demining more effective and efficient and safer, not an arm and a leg at a time.
All of these efforts will spur us to reach our goal of "zero victims," and of "mine-free" states, to eradicate those landmines that threaten civilians by the end of the next decade. We believe, in this regard, that Hidden Killers will make a contribution. As Secretary Albright states in her preface: "In describing casualties reduced and lands restored to productive use, Hidden Killers tells a story of success. And in providing lower, more realistic estimates of how many landmines remain to be cleared, it sends a message of hope."
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