13 July 2001

Missile Defense Director "Cautiously Optimistic" About July 14 Test

Washington -- The director of the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO) says he is "cautiously optimistic" about the success of a missile defense interceptor test scheduled for July 14.

Speaking to reporters at the Pentagon July 13 -- the eve of the Pacific-based test -- Air Force Lieutenant General Ronald Kadish said the countdown to the test has been going very well. He expressed "quiet confidence" that the BMDO program will achieve its objectives to use a ground-based interceptor launched from the central Pacific atoll of Kwajalein in the Marshall Islands to knock out a ballistic missile launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

This is the first test for BMDO in a year, and so the first since the Bush administration took office as well as the first since a restructuring of the missile defense program. Regardless of the outcome of the this test, Kadish said, "we're going to rapidly test the system."

This particular test is only "the next in a series of many more," he said. Kadish indicated that BMDO anticipates "a major test event" every other month. He said there is a 50-50 chance that the interceptor, which must discriminate between its target and a balloon decoy, will hit the target.

Since testing is being conducted using prototype hardware, the official said "anything can go wrong." It is a complex test, being conducted at intercontinental ballistic missile ranges, involving many people and hardware assets, Kadish noted.

The July 14 test (which is to take place in the Pacific on July 15 between 0200 and 0600 GMT) "will either give us more confidence, or, we will learn more from it if we fail," the official said. This test will repeat a failed one conducted last summer. If another failure occurs, Kadish said, "we need to know what (the) truth was" by collecting what he described as "truth data." He also pointed out that "no one test tells us all we need to know."

BMDO is working very hard using "an unprecedented technology," Kadish said. The notion is to begin the program with the most mature among a variety of technologies and then branch out, he said.

Asked what differences there are in developing a missile defense system in the Bush versus the former Clinton administration, Kadish said that BMDO managers were trying "to produce the best system ... under the rules of engagement we had in the last administration and we are going to try, like heck, to the same here."

Kadish presented a slide presentation describing the overall program as "a bold move to develop an effective integrated, layered missile defense against all ranges of threats" posed from distances ranging from a few kilometers up to 10,000.

The challenge, he said, will be to find ways to defeat short- medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles using, at least initially, hit-to-kill interceptors. This means using the force of a collision at very high speeds to destroy missiles launched by adversaries or launched in error. This technology will be the focus initially because it can be carried out most reliably, the official said.

If the United States were to face an emergency and BMDO were directed to deploy its future missile defense assets it would do so, but Kadish pointed out that there is no plan to deploy "right off the bat." Over the past 15 years, he acknowledged, "we've had a lot of things that didn't work."

The program will focus on research, development, testing and engineering without a commitment to a single, overarching architecture, according to Kadish. It will be a multi-layered, multi-faceted development program to protect the United States, its friends and allies, and deployed U.S. military forces.

Program managers will explore air, sea, land and space concepts to figure out how to intercept threats in boost (initial launch), mid-course (highest point) and terminal (local incoming) phases. There are no specific timelines for the evolution of the program, but managers contemplate a 2004 to 2010 timeframe for early elements to be deployed, with major congressional and departmental decisions to be made in 2002 to 2005, Kadish said.

He said one of the most mature technologies being explored is the Air Force's Airborne Laser (ABL) program. The ABL has the potential for executing its first "shoot down" at the speed of light in the 2003 to 2004 timeframe, according to Kadish.

The missile defense concept also dictates the need for creating a test bed to test various ranges, velocities and geometries that may be possible in a realistic threat scenario.

Kadish said enough money will be spent on missile defense testing to ensure success, but efforts will also be made to identify cost-saving opportunities. Missile defense tests are expected to cost approximately $100 million each.

The Defense Department has requested around $8 billion ($8,000 million) in fiscal year 2002 money to be spent on elements including a ballistic missile defense system; terminal, midcourse and boost defense segments; sensors, and military construction.

Asked when work will begin on a site at Fort Greely, Alaska where a network of expanded missile defense test facilities will be constructed, Kadish said tree removal will begin in August. The next phase will involve pouring concrete for five to 10 silo-based missile interceptors as early as possible in 2002, he said.

Kadish testified at length about missile defense before the Senate Armed Services Committee on July 12. The full text of his prepared statement is available on the Web.