12 July 2001

Wolfowitz Says Ballistic Missile Threat Is Real

Washington -- Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz says the threat from ballistic missiles is not fictional, limited, or even remote and will not disappear "if one or another troublesome regime disappears."

Wolfowitz also told the Senate Armed Services Committee July 12 that the Bush administration "must achieve release from the constraints" of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty.

Wolfowitz testified before the committee with Air Force Lieutenant General Ronald Kadish, director of the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO), as part of the administration's effort to present its case for missile defense and consult on what it sees as the need to move beyond the ABM Treaty.

Committee Chairman Carl Levin (Democrat, Michigan) pointed out that while the President has the right to withdraw from the ABM Treaty, Congress "has the heavy responsibility of determining whether or not to appropriate the funds for activities that conflict with a treaty."

Given the administration's budget request for $8 billion ($8,000 million) for missile defense in the 2002 fiscal year that begins October 1, 2001, Levin said it is essential for senators to understand the consequences of the proposed spending, since some, "are concerned about whether a treaty violation would leave America less secure" because it might spark an arms race that would increase the amount of nuclear materials in the world, thereby increasing the nuclear proliferation threat.

Coming to an understanding about the budget consequences of missile defense spending is "also essential for those who are concerned about the huge one-year increase in funding for missile defense, given other pressing defense needs," he said.

Kadish said the existing research and development program does not define a specific architecture, nor does it rush to deploy untested systems. He described the program as "a bold move to develop an effective, integrated layered defense (sea-, land- and air-based) that can be deployed as soon as possible against ballistic missiles at all ranges." The BMDO director also noted that program managers no longer differentiate between national missile defense and theater missile defense when describing the overall program.

He said that managers will not cut corners in pursuing missile defenses designed to protect the forces and territories of the United States, its allies and friends. At the same time, Wolfowitz said, money will not be thrown away on missile defense. The program has been designed, Kadish said, "so that, in an emergency and if directed, we might quickly deploy test assets against a rapidly emerging threat," as has been done in the Persian Gulf War and Kosovo. He said redundancy is needed for the program to succeed. BMDO has scheduled the next missile defense interceptor test -- the first in a year -- for July 14. If it goes well, a follow-up test can be expected in October or November and then tests will occur with greater frequency. Kadish told committee members there will be both success and failures ahead. He acknowledged that major difficulties must be overcome for the relevant technologies to work reliably and effectively, describing it as "an engineering challenge at this time."

Levin said the testimony by Wolfowitz and Kadish marked the first time that Congress is being told that missile defense test activities are likely to bump up against the ABM Treaty in months rather than years, noting that Kadish told the committee only three weeks ago that there would be no ABM Treaty conflict in FY 2002. Even Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told the committee that the '02 budget wouldn't be a problem, but then later revised his comments more recently to say: "We don't know for sure," Levin said. He added that Rumsfeld has not answered his July 2 letter seeking clarification.

Wolfowitz said resolving such questions will take a great deal of legal argument because of all the interpretations surrounding the ABM Treaty. "We are in a gray area, Mr. Chairman," he said. The Compliance Review Group is working on it, he added.

"You mean we won't have that assessment from your Compliance Review Group before we have to approve a budget?" Levin demanded. Wolfowitz said the administration is trying to achieve clarity on a variety of issues but "these issues are murky." Later he said there had been no effort on the part of administration officials to conceal information, but they have needed to "scramble hard" to frame the missile defense debate.

The senior minority member, John Warner (Republican, Virginia) sought to defuse the tensions in the hearing and expressed his hope that Congress will work constructively to achieve the defenses that America needs.

Senator Max Cleland (Democrat, Georgia) expressed dismay that spending on missile defense is siphoning away money needed for other military systems. He noted, for example, that the stockpile of precision-guided munitions, which were used so effectively in Kosovo, have not been replenished.

Wolfowitz insisted that U.S. military forces cannot be defended currently against ballistic missiles. "It is the Achilles heel of the U.S. military," he said. But he added, "We have no intension of deploying things that don't work."

When Levin adjourned the hearing, he called on the two Defense Department witnesses to return for more technical questioning on July 17. By then, the outcome of the scheduled BMDO test will provide further focus for members' questions.