14 December 2000 Joint Chiefs Shelton Addresses Future National Security Challenges By Jacquelyn S. Porth Washington File Security Affairs Writer Washington -- The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) says the greatest investment of U.S. time, energy and diplomacy must be focused in the future on developments in Asia, the Middle East and Russia since these regions "have the potential to dramatically affect America's economic, political and security interests." In a speech to the National Press Club December 14, Army General Henry "Hugh" Shelton said Asia's future "will not be decided in Pyongyang, but rather on the high frontiers of the Kashmir, on the floor of the Tokyo stock exchange, and in the special economic zones of Shanghai and Hong Kong." Having just returned from China in November, Shelton said he is convinced that all elements of U.S. power and diplomacy should seek to ensure that "China does not become the 21st century's version of the Soviet bear." He said it is in the interest of the United States to remain engaged with China through a variety of activities, and convince the Chinese of the importance of a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue. In the Middle East, Shelton said, Iraq is only one of several serious, long-term U.S. concerns. While the Iraqi military threatens American pilots daily and the Baghdad regime is insecure internally, the principle military adviser to the President and the secretary of defense said it is instability throughout the Middle East that presents the greatest challenges to U.S. interests over time. "The focal points are the Israel-Palestine issue and the tensions between modernism and fundamentalism in a region that is also a tinderbox of economic, political, and religious conflicts," he added. Meanwhile, in Europe where the Balkans region remains a very serious concern, Shelton said "the situation there pales in comparison with events in Russia." Europe's future will not hinge on the status of Kosovo or the creation of a new Serbia, he argued. Rather, Shelton said, "the future of Europe swings on the path that Russian nationalism takes and whether Russia can continue its peaceful evolution into a fully democratic nation with a stable economy that abides by the rule of law." Having just returned this week from a meeting in Moscow with the Russian chief of staff, the chairman said that he and his Russian counterpart discussed the thousands of nuclear and chemical weapons that remain in storage throughout Russia. The nuclear warheads, in particular, "present a most profound danger to our security, should they fall into the wrong hands," he said, and there are many such hands trying to obtain them. National security is not only about defense, said Shelton, whose current term as JCS chairman runs through September of 2001. It is also about U.S. economic prosperity, America's role as a world leader, as well as assistance programs "for friends, partners, and allies around the globe." U.S. national security "is enhanced by a strong defense industry making world class equipment that becomes the envy of all," he said, "and ultimately it contributes to strong overseas sales which, while enhancing our security, increase our military interoperability, bind us closer to friends and partner nations, and promote our nation's economic prosperity." Shelton used part of his speech to explain what factors should support future informed decisions to employ U.S. military force. He said military intervention must be linked to a discernible national interest or it will likely not be sustainable. The more remote the vital U.S. national interest is, he said, "the more challenging it becomes to sustain support over time." The chairman said military operations also require American public support as reflected by Congress. As the world's sole superpower, Shelton said American leaders have to ask tough questions such as "do we dare admit that force cannot solve every problem?" Several realities may complicate future decisions to use military power, Shelton said, such as the impact of instantaneous communications serving to compress reaction time, the diversity of threats and non-state actors sowing conflict, the expectation of additional failed states, and the expansion of range and types of conflicts to include information warfare. Keeping America strong at home helps it be strong abroad, according to Shelton. To address a variety of potential emerging threats, the Defense Department has made a number of organizational and structural changes. One of them has involved expanding responsibilities of the U.S. Space Command (SPACECOM) to include computer network attack. When directed to do so by the National Command Authority, he said, SPACECOM will have the authority to conduct "offensive operations against an adversary's systems." Much of the question-and-answer period focused on how Shelton might advise President-elect George Bush about the future Quadrennial Defense Review, defense budget issues, future weapons programs, and regional problems. The chairman said he had made it his practice not to share policy advice publicly, but he did indicate that the Balkan region requires attention. The key to sustaining peace and allowing the further withdrawal of military forces, he said, is the civil-implementation plan to accomplish tasks such as creating a court system and re-establishing the rule of law. Over the long term, Shelton said, "we must press hard" on civil implementation with allies, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, NATO, and the U.N. In the Balkans, Shelton said, leaders need to consider ways to use all the political, economic, diplomatic, and military tools in America's kit bag and to work within the NATO alliance "to establish a way ahead that is equitable" and exerts pressure to achieve civil implementation so that military forces can be reduced. Shelton was also asked about stability in South Asia. The relationship between India and Pakistan "is crucial in terms of maintaining stability" in that region so that "we don't have a war," he said, "particularly between two nations" that possess nuclear weapons. Asked about the need for a National Missile Defense (NMD) program, Shelton said there is an evolving proliferation threat. The technology issue is being worked now, he said, and then the issue of cost must be weighed with U.S. friends and allies. "We're moving in the right direction," he added. (The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. 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