U.S. Public Divides Along Party Lines On National Missile Defense

National missile defense is a highly partisan issue for the American public: Most Republicans favor it, most Democrats are opposed, while independents are closely divided. The two most recent polls on NMD (Gallup 5/23-24 and NBC 6/14-18) show that Americans as a whole divide closely on the issue (about 46% in favor vs. 42% opposed), when arguments are presented pro and con.

Opinions on National Missile Defense Not Firm

Previous polls have shown that most Americans support the basic idea of national missile defense (about 60% in favor vs. 30% opposed). However, support drops considerably in questions containing arguments pro and con, when issues are raised about cost and possibly negative effects on relations with Russia and China.

Public closely divided on two-sided questions about NMD - Two recent polls contained arguments pro and con about NMD and found Americans almost evenly divided about the issue. Gallup asked (5/23-24): "Some people feel the U.S. should try to develop a ground and space based missile defense system to protect the U.S. from missile attack. Others oppose such an effort because they say it would be too costly and might interfere with existing arms treaties with the Russians. Which position comes closer to your own?"

Should develop missile defense system 48%

Oppose developing system 42%

No opinion 10%

The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal survey (6/14-18) asked this question about NMD containing several arguments on each side of the issue: "As you may know, there is a proposal to build a national missile defense system. Supporters of the proposal say that new technology makes it possible to build a defense system that could stop small-scale missile attacks from nations such as Iran and North Korea, and that building the defense system to protect the U.S. is worthwhile. Opponents of the proposal say that a defense system would be extremely expensive, requiring cuts in other areas, and that building the defense system only would motivate China and Russia to build more advanced missiles. Based on this information, do you favor or oppose building a national missile defense system?"

Favor building NMD system 45%

Oppose developing system 43%

Not sure, Other (Vol.) 12%

Public divided on party and ideological lines - Both recent Gallup and NBC polls show sharp differences on NMD by party ID and political ideology: About two-thirds of Republicans support NMD (66% vs. 25% opposed - average of the two polls), while a small majority of Democrats are opposed (53% vs. 38% in favor). Independents are evenly divided (44% in favor vs. 45% opposed on the average). Also, most conservatives support NMD (58% vs. 33% opposed), while a small majority of liberals is opposed (53% vs. 37% in favor). Support for NMD is slightly greater among men than women, but there is hardly any difference on this issue among educational or income groups.

This report is based mainly on findings from two recent nationwide polls: Gallup/USA Today-CNN (5/23-24/00, N=525) and NBC/Wall Street Journal (614-18/00, N=2,010). Nineteen times out of twenty, the results based on a sample around 2,000 will differ by no more than 3 percentage points in either direction from what would be found if it were possible to interview every adult in the country. The results based on a sample of 500 will differ by no more than 6 points in either direction from the real figure in the population from which the sample is drawn. This report has been prepared by Alvin Richman, Office of Research (202-619-5140), [email protected].