08 April 2002

World's Older Population Rapidly Growing, U.N.'s ILO Says

Adds that new jobs needed to avoid poverty of elderly

The number of people in the world over the age of 60 is rapidly increasing, and millions of new jobs will be needed to avoid widespread poverty among the elderly, the U.N. International Labor Organization (ILO) says.

In an April 8 press release announcing the Second World Assembly on Ageing being held April 8-12 in Madrid, the ILO said that more jobs for women, young people and people with disabilities will be the key to financing social security and social protection systems in the future.

The agency also proposed employment policies that would prevent discrimination against older workers, allow older people to move gradually from an active working life to retirement and provide lifelong training, the release said.

The release said improved health and a decline in fertility rates has lengthened life expectancies and reduced the ratio of newborns to the general population.

"This amounts to a demographic revolution," ILO Director-General Juan Somavia said in the release. "As our societies age, the prospect of poverty and exclusion are cause for grave concern."

The release said the situation is more extreme in developing countries where less than 20 percent of the labor force is included in social security systems with retirement benefits.

In developed countries the percentage of people age 60 and over rose from 11.7 percent of total population in 1950 to 19.4 percent in 2000. In developing countries the percentage rose from 6.4 percent of total in 1950 to 7.7 percent in 2000 and is expected to grow to 19.3 percent by 2050.

Following is the text of the ILO press release:

ILO urges new solutions to old age problems Monday 8 April 2002

Geneva/Madrid (ILO News) -- The number of people aged 60 and over is rapidly increasing throughout the world in a "demographic revolution" that could lead to widespread poverty and social exclusion among the elderly, the International Labour Office (ILO) warns in a new report.

While not yet catastrophic, according to the report prepared for the Second World Assembly on Ageing to be held in Madrid on April 8-12, the increasing proportion of the population aged 60 and over poses a growing policy challenge in both developed and developing countries.

The ILO report says creating millions of new jobs -- in all sectors and especially among women, unemployed youth and people with disabilities -- will be the key to the financing of social security and social protection in the future.

"Poverty and social exclusion are the greatest obstacles to a secure and decent old age," ILO Director-General Juan Somavia said. "The vitality of our societies increasingly depends on ensuring that people of all ages, including older people, have a decent income from work or retirement and are able to continue participating in the life of their communities through employment, volunteer work or other activities."

The Assembly is being held to review developments since the First World Assembly on Ageing held in Vienna in 1982 and to adopt a revised plan of action and long-term strategy on ageing. The Director-General will participate in the first round-table at the Assembly on "Development in an ageing world: Implications of ageing in poverty eradication and development strategies". In addition, the ILO has organized a panel discussion on "Older workers and population ageing: Employment and social protections issues" on Wednesday, 10 April 2002.

Ageing in the world today

The world has seen a sharp rise in the number of persons over the age of 60 during past 50 years, according to UN population data, and a new ILO analysis indicates that the rate of increase will accelerate over the next 50 years.

In developed countries, for example, the percentage of persons over the age of 60 rose from 11.7 per cent of the total population in 1950 to 19.4 per cent by the year 2000, representing a 66 per cent increase. Between 2000 and 2050, the number of persons in the same age group is expected to increase to 33.5 per cent of the total population, a 72 per cent increase.

In developing countries, where populations are still relatively young in comparison to the industrialized countries, the increase in the elderly is even more startling. While the proportion of persons aged 60 and over increased from 6.4 per cent of the total population to 7.7 per cent between the years 1950 and 2000 (a 19 per cent increase of the share), the share of that age group is expected to grow by 150 per cent by the year 2050 to 19.3 percent.

Among persons over the age of 80, the increase will be even sharper. Between 2000 and 2050, the number of persons over 80 in the total population of developed countries is expected to rise from 3.1 per cent of the total population in the year 2000 to 9.6 per cent in 2050, that is a 200 per cent increase of the percentage, while that figure for developing countries will be 400 per cent (from 0.7 per cent of the total population in 2000 to 3.3 per cent in 2050).

The report attributes this demographic shift mainly to the general decline in fertility rates and to improved health, which has lengthened life expectancy and reduced the ratio of newborns to the total population in.

"This amounts to a demographic revolution," Mr. Somavia said. "As our societies age, the prospect of poverty and exclusion are cause for grave concern."

Solutions

As a consequence, the ILO report warns that as future social security systems in industrialized countries come under increasing strain from an ageing population, changing the mechanisms for financing retirement will be unable to solve the problem of rising pension costs.

Among the solutions, the ILO says, may be changing employment policies in order to enable older workers to stay longer in employment should they wish and to make it attractive for them to do so. The ILO therefore proposes the introduction of a gradual and flexible transition from active working life to retirement, coupled with measures to prevent discrimination in employment and policies to train and retrain older workers. Other steps should include the promotion of lifelong learning as well as developing the potential of information and communication technology (ICT) to open up employment and training possibilities for older people.

Social transfer systems should be kept in financial equilibrium by sharing the financial burden of ageing fairly between the active and inactive populations. The report also suggests investigating more thoroughly the scope and limitations of migration replacement as a solution to population ageing.

In the developing countries, the challenge will be more extreme since less than 20 per cent of the labour force there is included in regular social security systems with retirement a luxury few older people can afford. Even if the formal sector requires them to retire, insufficient transfer incomes force older people to continue working in the informal economy (about 40 per cent in Africa and 25 per cent in Asia, mostly in agriculture).

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