November 22, 2000

Senator Kerry Optimistic about
Future Ratification of Climate Treaty

By Jim Fuller
Washington File Science Correspondent

The Hague -- U.S. Democratic Senator John Kerry, a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, says that the potential for Senate ratification of the Kyoto Protocol looks more promising than in the past as more and more Senators have begun to accept the science of climate change.

Kerry and other members of Congress have been participating as observers in the two-week climate conference at The Hague, where diplomats from more than 160 countries are trying to agree on ways developed countries can meet targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions blamed for causing global warming.

Under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, industrialized countries agreed to trim greenhouse gas emissions on average by about 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2008 to 2012, with the United States pledged to contribute a 7 percent cut. While some 30 countries have so far ratified the protocol, none of the industrialized countries that must actually curb the heat-trapping gases have ratified the treaty yet.

Under U.S. law, the Senate must pass the Kyoto Protocol by a two-thirds majority, up to now a tough task given the majority held by the Republicans, who are largely skeptical of the treaty.

Kerry, however, said that the long-term outlook for U.S. Senate ratification was slowly improving with the steady accumulation of scientific evidence that greenhouse gases -- mainly from the burning of fossil fuels -- are altering the atmosphere in ways that affect Earth's climate.

Kerry said he believes a sign of this change in attitude occurred on November 21 when two key opponents to the protocol, Republican Senators Larry Craig and Chuck Hagel, told reporters at the conference that they have become more accepting of the science.

Kerry said he believes that "ultimately the force of science, the force of global climate change itself -- the disappearing ice flows, the continued drought in our agricultural sector, rising sea levels, the increased intensity of storms, and a host of other indicators" will have an impact on the way senators view climate change and will lead to support for the ratification of the treaty.

Kerry said that the makeup of the Senate itself has also changed following the national elections held November 4. "It appears that we (the Democrats) are on the brink of perhaps winning a fifth Senate seat from the state of Washington," he said. "If that happens, we will have 50 U.S. senators -- three of the new senators in favor of the treaty. So support for it is growing."

The Senate race was so close in Washington that the winner of the election has not yet been determined.

Kerry also rejected remarks made by some Senate colleagues that attempts to pass the treaty in the Senate was a "futile exercise" because it doesn't meet the basic requirements of the Byrd-Hagel Resolution. The resolution, unanimously passed by the Senate three years ago, says that the protocol would be ratified only if it does not result in "serious economic harm" to the U.S. economy and only if a parallel agreement is struck with developing countries to begin limiting their greenhouse gas emissions.

Developing countries have so far adamantly refused to consider any limits on their emissions, arguing that they emit less pollution per capita than countries in the West, and that nations at an earlier stage of economic development need to use more fossil fuels per unit of output than advanced nations.

Representative Joe Barton, a Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives, told reporters at the conference that if Bush wins the presidency, Barton would recommend that the United States abandon the Kyoto agreement and begin bilateral or collateral negotiations "with the European Union and perhaps some of the Asian countries so that we can get an agreement that can be implemented and voted on in the Congress."

"The sooner that we stop this process and begin a process in which something can actually be done, the better off the world environment will be," he added.

But Kerry argued that there have been several major treaties that have had a profound impact on the behavior of nations, and yet had either not been ratified by the U.S. Senate or took many years to ratify.

"The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is an example, or the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, or the Chemical Weapons Treaty -- all of which have had a global impact, but which had either not been ratified or had taken a long time to ratify," Kerry said. "So the Kyoto Treaty must continue to be worked on with the same energy and zeal that has brought us to this point."

Kerry cautioned U.S. delegates not to negotiate a treaty that cuts corners or provides less than is needed to do the job of preventing climate change "just because that might somehow be more ratifiable."

"Just because the Senate is not ready to ratify, it doesn't in any way suggest that we shouldn't come out of here with the best agreement possible," he said. "We need to fight for a treaty that will stand the test of time because ultimately I believe" it will be ratified.

Frank Loy, under secretary of state for global affairs and head of the U.S. delegation at The Hague conference, had just begun his press conference on November 22 when a protestor walked up and threw a pie in his face. The protestor was forcibly removed from the room by security guards. The press conference was postponed to the following day. The protestor was not identified.

A prepared statement released following the incident by over a dozen non-governmental organizations (NGOs), including the World Wildlife Fund, Greenpeace USA and the Sierra Club, said that the organizations deplored "the unfortunate action."

"Many are frustrated by the slow pace of negotiations and the lack of domestic action against global warming, especially in those countries that are largest contributors to the problem," the statement said. "However, we believe there are more constructive ways to achieve our goals of preventing dangerous climate change."

The NGOs expressed the hope that the occurrence would not hamper the efforts of the climate summit to conclude rules for an effective Kyoto Protocol, "or for industrialized nations to accelerate their efforts to reduce domestic emissions of global warming pollution."