09 November 2000

Climate Change Talks Set for The Hague

Washington -- Environmental ministers from more than 150 developed and developing countries are preparing to meet November 13-24 in The Hague in an effort to reach agreement on an ambitious environmental treaty aimed at defusing the threat of global warming.

Ministers and diplomats at The Hague meeting -- known as the Sixth Session of the Conference of Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-6) -- will try to accelerate international action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. Greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, can trap solar energy in the atmosphere and are believed to cause global warming.

In an Earth Day address last April, President Clinton said global warming is "the most critical environmental challenge" of the new century, and that if left unchecked could result in more violent storms, more economic disruptions and more permanent flooding of coastal areas.

A draft report just released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which represents the work of more than 2000 of the world's leading climate scientists, says new evidence shows that man-made pollution has "contributed substantially to the observed warming over the last 50 years."

The report says scientists, in revised estimates, conclude that if greenhouse emissions are not curtailed the Earth's average surface temperatures could be expected to increase anywhere from 1.5 to more than 6 degrees Centigrade by the end of this century, substantially more than estimated by a similar IPCC report issued five years ago. The United Nations is expected to approve the new report at a conference early next year.

Michael Zammit Cutajar, executive secretary of the U.N. climate change convention, says negotiators at The Hague conference have "a make or break opportunity" to roll back greenhouse gas emissions that are having an impact on global warming.

Cutajar told reporters recently that he would consider the meeting a success if a number of key industrialized nations that are the main emitters of greenhouse gases -- such as the United States, the European Union, Japan, Russia, Canada and Australia -- announce that they will propose their countries ratify the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

While the protocol has been signed by more than 150 countries and ratified by 30 countries, it has not yet been ratified by any industrialized countries. If ratified, the protocol would require major industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by the period 2008-2012. Many governments are awaiting agreement on the operational details of how the protocol will work before deciding on ratification.

Key protocol-related issues that still need to be resolved by negotiators in The Hague include rules for the market-based mechanisms, such as emissions trading and the so-called clean development mechanism; rules that would allow countries to reduce emissions by improving so-called "sinks" -- forests and agricultural lands that absorb carbon; a regime for monitoring compliance with commitments to reduce emissions; and accounting methods for national emissions and emissions reductions.

Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs Frank Loy, who will head the U.S. delegation at the climate talks, said in a recent speech that the United States is determined to finish the rules for the protocol as soon as possible to allow for its early ratification and entry into force.

"I am confident that at COP-6 we will decide a number of major issues relating to the Kyoto mechanisms, sinks, compliance and a variety of issues of particular concern to developing countries," Loy said. "Work on the protocol continues apace with every expectation that the international community will have a finished agreement for countries to ratify in time to meet their Kyoto commitments."

Loy said in recent U.S. Senate testimony that one of the administration's main goals is to make sure that the final agreement is cost-effective. He said that is why U.S. negotiators have insisted on inclusion of market-based mechanisms, such as emissions trading, which would allow businesses that cut their greenhouse gas emissions beyond the targets set by the protocol to sell the extra credits to other businesses that cannot make similar cuts as cheaply.

Loy said that a well-designed emissions trading system will "cut the cost of reducing greenhouse gases by allowing the marketplace to identify the most cost-effective reductions, thereby making efficient use of limited global resources."

U.S. negotiators are also proposing that carbon dioxide absorbed by forests and agricultural lands should account for a substantial amount of the greenhouse gas reductions required under the pending international treaty.

A U.S. State Department report submitted to the United Nations calculates that about 300 million metric tons of carbon dioxide is absorbed annually in U.S. forests and in soil used for crops and livestock grazing. This carbon sink amounts to nearly half of the annual carbon emissions reductions the United States would be expected to make beginning in 2008 under the treaty.

David Sandalow, assistant secretary of state for oceans and international environmental and scientific affairs, said a significant portion of the carbon dioxide being absorbed by sinks should be counted as credits toward U.S. emissions reductions. Sandalow cited estimates that it will be much cheaper for a country to absorb pollution than to reduce the output of these gases.

U.S. negotiators are also calling for a system to accurately monitor and verify a country's carbon emissions and their removal from the atmosphere.

"It's very important that we have very strong rules to monitor and measure and verify emissions reductions that countries are making, and (emissions) trades that people are making, coupled with strong enforcement provisions to ensure that people are in compliance," Sandalow said.

Most European countries, along with many environmentalists, have opposed heavy reliance on forest and agricultural carbon sinks, contending that would mean less emphasis on cutting greenhouse gases from industrial plants and other sources. Many European countries are also concerned because they have fewer forests and agricultural land than countries like the United States.

According to Loy, the European Union is also concerned that companies in the United States and other countries relying on market-based mechanisms, such as emissions trading, will enjoy a competitive advantage over European businesses that have been subjected to carbon taxes and extensive regulation.

Loy emphasized, however, that "overly bureaucratic requirements or artificial limits" on emissions trading or the treaty's sinks provision would only restrict the ability of developed countries to meet their emissions targets at a reasonable cost, "and thereby undermine support for the protocol."

Loy also emphasized that the protocol must include meaningful participation by key developing countries in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. He pointed out that developing countries already produce 44 percent of global fossil fuel emissions, and that several large developing countries will soon become the world's leading emitters.

"Industrialized countries must take the lead, but other countries must also contribute in ways that promote their sustainable development," he said.

Loy said that the protocol's clean development mechanism is an important step forward. It allows industrialized countries or their companies to earn emissions credits through projects that contribute to sustainable development in developing countries. He said that while nations were suspicious of the idea when it was first discussed at the climate change conference in Kyoto, Japan, three years ago, there is now "genuine and enthusiastic support" for the mechanism among many developing countries.

Loy said the creation of strong, market-based operational rules for the clean development mechanism will be high on the agenda at The Hague.