Transcript: Adm. Blair Briefing on Korea, India-Pakistan, China-Taiwan
(Indonesia must deal with Timor refugee, accountability issues)The commander of all U.S. military forces in the Pacific says that tensions concerning North Korea, India-Pakistan and China-Taiwan are priority concerns for the United States.
At an April 3 press briefing in Jakarta, Admiral Dennis Blair, commander-in-chief of U.S. forces in the Pacific (CINCPAC), said that despite "all of the obvious difficulties involved in all three areas," there are "hopeful signs."
U.S. relations with Indonesia have improved since the turmoil subsided in East Timor, but they haven't improved enough yet to resume military-to-military relations, Blair said.
Indonesia must still complete steps to settle issues regarding East Timorese refugees and accountability of the militias responsible for the violence, he said.
He emphasized U.S. desires to see "a reformed, responsive and professional" Indonesian armed forces and observed that "I see more forward-looking and thinking by Indonesia military officers" who exhibit "a more optimistic view, in terms of their getting on top of their responsibilities.... "
Tensions between Taiwan and China appear to have subsided since the Taiwanese elections, Blair said, adding that "the rhetoric on both sides has been of a more positive and constructive nature.... "
North Korea remains the most volatile flashpoint in Asia, according to Blair. Despite North Korea's provocations in the past, its leaders know that if a major conflict starts, they will not only lose the conflict but their regime as well, the Admiral said. That knowledge alone, Blair said, has "a very strong deterrent capability."
Following is a transcript of the press briefing:
(begin transcript)
ON THE RECORD PRESS BRIEFING
U.S. CINCPAC ADMIRAL DENNIS C. BLAIR
APRIL 3, 2000
REGENT HOTEL, REGENT IIIAdmiral Blair: It's good to have a chance to talk with all of you. Why don't I just open up with a few words and then we can take a few questions after that. As you see from the description of my responsibilities, I worry about a little more than half the world's surface. The areas that have been of most concern to me recently have been North Korea, the India-Pakistan situation, and China-Taiwan. My piece of it is the security piece that underlies each of those situations. In all three of those, I think we can see a peaceful way forward to do something that is in the best interests of the countries that are on the front lines in those areas and of the United States. Our interest in all of those cases is seeing progress made peacefully. Despite all of the obvious difficulties involved in all three areas, I think there are hopeful signs that we can move things forward in those three areas.
Indonesia is one of the big, important countries in my region and my visit is to stay in touch with the leadership of the armed forces here. I visited twice last year, most recently in September 1999. In September 1999, we suspended our military-to-military relationship with the armed forces of Indonesia in the aftermath of the violence after the referendum in East Timor. And my trip here now is to review those relationships and see where we go in the future. That was really the focus of the discussion I've been having with Indonesian leadership. We are not yet to the point where we can resume the military-to-military relations that are in our interests. We still are not ready to resume them. The primary things we are looking for from the U.S. point of view are the completion of the steps in Timor having to do with the militias and refugees, and with the further progress on the accountability inquiries which are now going on. I was very encouraged by President Wahid's statements over the weekend that there needs to be continued work done and that, if the steps that have been taken so far can continue and the accomplishments with regard to the refugees, accountability and the militias match the words, I think we will be able to move forward with our military-to-military relationship. I believe very much that it is in both of our interests, in the interests of the United States and in the interests of Indonesia. When we look at Indonesia, we in the United States believe that a unified and strong Indonesia is in the interests of the United States. We believe that that country should have a reformed, responsive and professional armed forces. And we believe it should have a strong, growing economy, which is benefiting its citizens and which is, of course, trading with the United States and the world economy, to the benefit of both economies. So that's where we would like to go. I think there have been certain steps forward since my last visit in September when we suspended our relations. We are looking forward to being able to get back to that relationship as soon as these additional steps are taken. So let me stop there and see what's on your mind and answer questions you may have.
Q: When do you think the [military-to-military] relationship can be resumed?
Admiral Blair: I think that it is event-based rather than calendar-based and the events that we need to see are the disbanding and stopping support to the militias who have been moving across the border in recent weeks, the actual movement on the refugees who are still in West Timor and whose status has not been determined one way or the other, and then the continuation of the accountability inquiries to conclusion in a way that satisfies the demands of justice. So it is in those three areas that we are really looking for progress and then we can move forward from our end.
Q: Do you believe that top Indonesian military commanders will have to be punished for justice to be served in East Timor?
Admiral Blair: I don't like to hang people before the process is completed. I think the inquiry has to go on and then the decisions have to be made by Indonesia. I certainly don't prejudge results. I think the process is the important part here. As part of the professionalization of any armed force, you have to have an accountability system for the actions of senior military leaders, right down through junior officers and soldiers. And that system needs to be carried out and whatever the answers are, are the answers.
Q: Do you have faith that it will be carried out in a competent manner and that the correct people will be punished?
Admiral Blair: From what I've seen so far, the system is starting well.
Q: What kind of military-to-military relationship [will exist] between the United States and Indonesia?
Admiral Blair: I think there are many areas in which we can operate together, some of which we have already worked on together in the past and some of which are new, in the maritime areas. I know that the Indonesian navy and marine corps are thinking about their role in new ways, having to do with economic resources as well as with the sovereignty of its borders. I think that naval exercises and the exchange of information and common approaches to things like combating piracy, and illegal immigration and drug trafficking and so on, are promising areas. Certainly there are areas of Air Force cooperation, in terms of air sovereignty, in the area of surveillance and mutual skills. I believe that in cooperation with the Army, the traditional training relationship that we have in terms of training together is in the interests of both parties, when we can resume that. I also note that the Indonesian Army has a strong and proud peacekeeping tradition, outside of its borders, in many areas around the world. And the United States is cooperating with many countries in order to raise the collective peacekeeping ability of the nations of Asia, as well as elsewhere. And I think that we have promising ways that we can develop together there, so I see a number of areas that can, not only restore the previous relationship we had with TNI, but even take it to different areas in the future, as the world changes.
Q: Compared to the past, what is the difference in the thinking [of senior Indonesian military leaders] about reforms?
Admiral Blair: I see more forward-looking and thinking by Indonesia military officers whom I am talking to. I see a more optimistic view, in terms of their getting on top of their responsibilities, than perhaps I saw a year ago. I'd say those are the two characteristics: more of a forward look and a little more confidence.
Q: President Wahid a few weeks ago said that he would like to reduce Indonesia's dependency on the U.S. for the supply of military hardware. Can you comment on that?
Admiral Blair: Based on looking at other countries, the disadvantage of spreading your procurement systems around to different countries is that you have a very difficult supply and maintenance and operational problem because you have small numbers of large amounts of equipment. It's hard to keep it up and mesh it together and make it inter-operable. From a military point-of-view, having a wide base of suppliers for equipment is not an advantage operationally. I think that American equipment is clearly the top line of equipment in the world these days and Indonesia has purchased equipment from the United States in the past. I believe that where all of this comes together is, if the President's goals for professionalizing and reforming the armed forces come true, there is no reason the United States can't continue to supply equipment to the Indonesian armed forces. The quality of equipment and the support that we provide would be to the advantage of Indonesia, so I think that we would want to look in those terms rather than having a big number of suppliers of equipment which is difficult to maintain. But, from the American point of view, it depends on the completion of the reforms that are under way because suspension of equipment sales and spare parts is part of the suspension of the overall relationship which has gone on since September. So that's certainly what lies behind the comment.
Q: I find it passingly strange that one of the conditions for the resumption of military ties is not the improvement of the military's human rights record. International humanitarian organizations such as the International Red Cross have accused the Indonesian military and the police force of committing widespread atrocities in areas such as Aceh. Why is this not a condition for the resumption of ties?
Admiral Blair: I think that is subsumed within the accountability criteria, the accountability includes following orders, acting correctly. In fact, I understand most of the charges being investigated have to do with people exceeding their discipline, and taking actions against the human rights of other citizens. I think, they're really tied together.
Q: So it's not just linked to the accountability of atrocities that were committed in East Timor, it's also an improvement ... (inaudible)
Admiral Blair: Yes, the improvement that we are looking for is the general establishment of a good accountability system for the actions of military officers and people throughout its operations.
Q: The human rights concerns are the most serious consideration for the U.S. government before sending any military equipment here. How serious will this be compared with the past?
Admiral Blair: We're not really prioritizing among these conditions, we're looking for across-the-board improvement in performance, improvement in accountability, and in improvement of the results. It's all of these. One is not more important than the other. I want to emphasize that what we're looking for here is exactly what the TNI leadership and the political leadership is saying. I'm not making up new conditions that I'm applying. What we are hearing are the good objectives of the Indonesian government and leadership itself. We're looking for the results, the deeds to match those words and then we can march forward. So it's a case of us wanting to see what the Indonesian leadership itself is saying it wants to do, and which I am convinced in my private conversations they do want to do. But, of course, it's a long way to come. As you all know better than I, we're talking about a country which is coming out of a long period of authoritarian rule in which the armed forces played a very different role from the role that armed forces play under a democracy. And so there are some big changes in order to do what sound like very simple things. We're looking for those actions to take place.
Q: The Taiwan and mainland China relationship, do you think it is going to be worse than it is now from the military point of view? Do you think there is going to be war or more tension than there is now?
Admiral Blair: No, I think there is going to be less tension than there is now. I think the election in Taiwan, as it did back in 1996, tends to raise the level of rhetoric on both sides of the strait. I'd point out that back in 1996, it was more than rhetoric. There were missiles fired by China, there were major exercises, there were deployments by the Pacific Command forces. In the election campaign that just preceded, there was pretty sharp rhetoric on both sides. There were no military actions. Also, after the election, the rhetoric on both sides has been of a more positive and constructive nature, coming out of both Taipei and Beijing. I believe, and I said this on the trip I took to China about a month ago, that the way forward is through the improvement of cross-strait ties, negotiation, coming up with more contact between Taiwan and China. Progress is not going to be made by saber rattling and military deployments. Those are just going to harden positions and make progress more difficult. I'm looking for progress on the non-military, non-rhetorical front, in the future, which I think is the only way we're going to achieve a peaceful resolution which is in the interest of everybody.
Q: Do you think the military leaders here are ready to change their role under a democratic [government]?
Admiral Blair: In my conversations with the senior military leadership, I sense a very strong commitment to the reform and professional improvement of TNI. What I'm told in my conversations with them is to understand, from the Indonesian point of view, the distance that has to be traveled, the difficulty of the task, and the weight of history that impedes rapid progress. My feeling in my conversations is that the goal is shared, the speed will depend on the leadership and the intensity and the commitment there, because there is a long way to travel.
Q: Did you give some suggestions for them [the Indonesian military leadership]?
Admiral Blair: I try not to preach to people and tell them what to do and how to do it. I try to emphasize the goals that we both share and I can't walk in other officers' shoes to that extent. But I do make clear what is the ultimate expectation of the United States in order for us to have the relationship that I think we ought to have.
Q: Was there any talk about Aceh and any information you have about a separation in other places?
Admiral Blair: I raised it in my discussion because I hear from people in Indonesia that there may be some suspicions that the United States is in favor of a somehow divided and weak Indonesia. I tell the military leaders and everyone I talk to that is simply not the case. I know of no one in the government of the United States in responsible positions who has that goal. We are all in favor of a strong, united Indonesia with a good responsible armed forces and a strong economy. We draw a very clear distinction between East Timor and the rest of Indonesia. We don't consider the other parts of Indonesia as being potential East Timors which should become separate countries. I say that to the people I talk to. I believe that and there is no one in a responsible position in the United States who feels any differently, that I've talked with or know
Q: Is the U.S. military concerned with human rights abuses in Aceh?
Admiral Blair: Yes, yes. We think that when either police or military forces are sent into a difficult situation, which Aceh certainly is, we think they have to be properly trained. They have to follow rules of engagement. There has to be accountability for their actions. They have to behave professionally. That applies to Aceh just as it does to other areas. It's the right thing to do, it's the effective thing to do and we think that that's the way that professional armed forces around the world, including the TNI in Aceh, ought to operate.
Q: Will the U.S. military be apt to resume ties with the Indonesian military before international relief agencies say that atrocities throughout Indonesia by the Indonesian security forces have stopped?
Admiral Blair: The decision to resume military ties is the decision of the government, not of the armed forces operating independently. That judgment is informed by the total look at what is going on within Indonesia, and within the armed forces. It's not determined by international organizations but by a government decision and that has to do with the systems that are set up, the way they are being used, and the initial results that we see. Those are the factors, not whether an NGO or another has a particular scorecard or a particular event.
Q: Which area in the Asia-Pacific area region has the greatest potential as a flashpoint?
Admiral Blair: North Korea. You have two million people facing each other across a demilitarized boundary. You have a history of some provocative incidents by one side, and that's really where the flashpoint is the greatest. However, the North Korean leaders also know that if a major conflict starts, they know that not only will they lose the conflict, but it will be the end of their regime. So there is a very strong deterrent capability which I think will be successful. So the fact that it's the most dangerous -- I'm not saying that I think war will break out tomorrow -- I think deterrence will work and that there is a very low probability. But when you just look at the amount of military force that's there, the possibilities for destruction should fighting start, that's really the single most dangerous place.
Q: In Southeast Asia, is there any potential flashpoint there?
Admiral Blair: It's interesting how, since the end of the southeast Asian conflict, that conflict in southeast Asia has been absent. I think that is a healthy trend that I hope will continue and I think it will. But I think there is some work that we need to do to make sure that it does so and there's a military component of that having to do with our interaction and cooperation and commitment to work on common problems together.
(end transcript)
(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: usinfo.state.gov)
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