G L O B A L I S S U E S Climate Change Choices ARTICLE ALERT
Abstracts of recent articles on climate change:
Bolin, Bert. THE KYOTO NEGOTIATIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE: A SCIENCE
PERSPECTIVE (Science, vol. 279, January 16, 1998, pp. 330-331)
The article analyzes the agreement reached by the Third Conference of Parties to the Framework
Convention on Climate Change in Kyoto. The author writes that because of the long time carbon
dioxide remains in the atmosphere, even a modest reduction in the rate of increase of
atmospheric carbon dioxide -- as called for by the Kyoto Protocol -- would be of long-term
significance. The author also says that the Kyoto delegates did not fully appreciate the inertia of
the climate system, and that therefore it seems likely that another international effort will be
required well before 2010 to consider whether further measures are warranted.
Calvin, William H. THE GREAT CLIMATE FLIP-FLOP (The Atlantic Monthly, vol. 281, no.
1, January 1998, pp. 47-64)
Recent discoveries by scientists indicate that the current global warming trend, caused by
increasing greenhouse gas emissions, could trigger a "climate flip" that results not in warmth but
in drastic cooling that could threaten the survival of civilization. According to the author,
sufficient global warming could increase high-latitude rainfall or melt Greenland's ice -- either of
which could interfere with the mechanism that allows warm equatorial waters to flow around
Greenland and Norway. Should this happen, Europe's climate could become more like
Siberia's.
Cooper, Richard N. TOWARD A REAL GLOBAL WARMING TREATY (Foreign Affairs,
vol. 77, no. 2, March/April 1998, pp. 66-79)
The author thinks that the Kyoto strategy will not succeed because it is premised on setting
national emissions targets. These targets will never be met without the cooperation of the
developing countries, and they will not consent. There is unlikely to be a generally acceptable
principle for allocating valuable emission rights between rich and poor countries. Mutually
agreed-upon actions, such as a nationally collected tax on greenhouse gas emissions, might offer
some hope for international action to slow global warming.
Forrister, Derrick; and others. KYOTO AND THE U.S. ECONOMY (Environmental Forum,
vol. 14, no. 6, November/December, 1997, pp. 40-47)
Using the Kyoto conference as a backdrop, the article offers a collection of widely divergent
views on the possible effects of binding emissions controls to the U.S. economy. For example,
the president of the National Manufacturers Association feels that an international climate
change treaty "would be disastrous for the [U.S.] national interest," while the senior economist
for the World Resources Institute believes that "the U.S. should be able to meet the modest
targets ... with minimal economic disruption."
O'Meara, Molly. THE RISKS OF DISRUPTING CLIMATE (World Watch, vol. 10, no. 6,
November/December 1997, pp. 10-24)
O'Meara, a staff researcher with a premier environmental nongovernmental organization, takes a
comprehensive look at the risks of doing nothing to slow climate change. Citing evidence that
Earth is "experiencing a twentieth century warming trend," and providing informed speculation
on what unchecked emissions of "greenhouse" gases may bring, she argues that we cannot afford
the risk of doing nothing.
Schelling, Thomas C. THE COST OF COMBATING GLOBAL WARMING (Foreign Affairs,
vol. 76, no. 6, November/December 1997, pp. 8-14)
The author points out that any costs of mitigating climate change will be borne by the
high-income countries. But the benefits will accrue to future generations in the developing
world. Alternative uses of resources devoted to ameliorating climate change should be
considered, including whether it makes more sense to invest directly in development. The need
for greenhouse gas abatement cannot be separated from the developing world's need for
immediate economic improvement. Professor Schelling poses the question of whether it wouldn't
be better to invest in development today than pay for climate relief tomorrow.
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