G L O B A L I S S U E S Climate Change Choices CHANGES NEEDED IN U.S. ENERGY POLICY
Senator Richard Lugar
(Excerpts of the senator's opening remarks made March 5, 1998, at a committee hearing on the
Kyoto Protocol.)
In December [1997], leaders from 150 countries gathered in Kyoto, Japan to address the issue of
climate change. The result, "the Kyoto Protocol," has met with intense controversy. It is unlikely
to be ratified by the Senate in its present form.
In preparation for Kyoto, the Senate passed the Hagel-Byrd resolution in July, urging the
president not to sign any treaty that failed to include emissions limitations on developing
countries. However, the United States signed the Kyoto Protocol, with administration officials
conceding that it does not include "meaningful participation" by the "key developing
countries."
The national debate over the protocol may force this nation to overcome its tendency to separate
energy and environmental policies. In reality, many of our environmental problems are related to
our need for energy. Changes in energy policy are essential to addressing environmental
concerns.
Events beyond our borders also have tremendous impact on American energy security and
environmental interests. As the economies and populations of China, India, South Korea,
Mexico, Brazil and other key developing countries rapidly increase, so too will their need for
energy. Such growth will fuel the greenhouse gas problem.
The United States currently emits 22 percent of the world's greenhouse gases while generating 26
percent of the world's wealth. As our economy and population grow, so too will our carbon
emissions. The Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. carbon emissions will
increase 34 percent from 1990 to 2010, assuming a very modest economic growth rate of only
2.2 percent per year. If economic growth is higher, our emissions growth is likely to be even
greater. We must find ways to address the climate change problem without suppressing our
economic growth or hurting our businesses, farms, and workers.
At Kyoto, administration negotiators agreed that we would reduce our greenhouse gas emissions
by 7 percent below 1990 levels by the period 2008-2012. To meet this target, which is only 10 to
14 years away, it is estimated that we must reduce our levels of greenhouse gases in 2010 by 30
percent or more from forecasted levels. A 30 percent reduction would amount to approximately
560 million metric tons of carbon equivalents annually.
Where will these reductions come from?
According to the Energy Information Administration, a high technology option would produce
reductions of only 79 million metric tons of carbon equivalent, which is a 4 percent reduction
from projected 2010 levels. There are also opportunities for increasing the carbon storage
capacity
of our forests and soils, which administration estimates show might reduce our reduction
obligations by a similar amount.
The administration is reportedly relying upon international trading of emissions and purchases of
credits under the Clean Development Fund to account for a large portion of our reductions.
To address these many issues, I believe that the president should establish an interagency Energy
and Environmental Security Task Force. We cannot cope with any of our pending environmental
or energy security problems without a new energy policy.
We must also address the serious threat of worldwide deforestation. Experts indicate that about
20 percent of the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is due to the elimination of carbon
sinks in our soils and forests. We are losing 30 million acres of tropical forests per year. Yet the
Kyoto Protocol may not allow the United States to count projects that we fund in developing
nations to avoid deforestation and promote sustainable agriculture as part of our contribution to
addressing the climate change problem.
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Richard Lugar, a Republican from Indiana, is also a member of the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee.
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