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May 20, 1999

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GUEST: Dr. Susan Shirk, Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, U.S. Department of State

TOPIC: U.S.-China Relations

HOST: Judlyne Lilly

DATE: May 20, 1999

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MS. LILLY: Hello, and welcome to Worldnet's "Dialogue," I'm your host Judlyne Lilly. U.S.-China relations are currently experiencing unusual challenges due to the NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, and other events related to national security.

Citizens of both countries are puzzled by the recent developments, and concerned about the importance of this important bilateral relationship.

To discuss the future of U.S.-Sino relations, I am honored to introduce Dr. Susan Shirk, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs. Dr. Shirk has been professionally involved in U.S.-China relations for over 10 years, and has written several books on China. Dr. Shirk, thank you so much for joining us today.

First, let's take a look back on the recent tragic bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. Defense Secretary William Cohen explains how the accident happened:

SEC. COHEN (from videotape): In simple terms, one of our planes attacked the wrong target, because the bombing instructions were based on an outdated map.

MS. LILLY: Now, I was wondering, Dr. Shirk, if you had anything at all to add to Secretary Cohen's statement?

DR. SHIRK: Well, Secretary Cohen spoke last week with just our very initial understanding of what had happened. And since that time the Defense Department and our intelligence agencies have been doing a very thorough investigation to really get all the facts and to understand how this accident could have happened despite all of our advanced technology and our excellent methods. So we are preparing an investigation which we will make public, as well as present to the Chinese government, and we certainly hope and expect the Chinese government will make it public to the Chinese public as well.

MS. LILLY: NATO and the U.S. have both said it was an accident, and President Clinton has apologized.

PRESIDENT CLINTON (from videotape): It was a tragic mistake, and I want to offer my sincere regret and my condolences to both the leaders and the people of China.

MS. LILLY: Now, what other actions did the U.S. and NATO take in the wake of this accidental bombing since the President's apology?

DR. SHIRK: Well, first of all I think it's important to understand that the minute we heard about this tragic event, the United States government has been apologizing. Starting right from that evening, our U.N. ambassador went into the Security Council and expressed the apologies of our government. Since then, the President, the secretary of State, the secretary of Defense, have apologized both publicly and privately in letters and phone calls to the Chinese people, to the government. They've expressed their heart-felt condolences to the families of the innocent victims of this terrible accident. The President signed the condolence books here at the Chinese Embassy to communicate his sympathy and condolences personally and on behalf of the government. All of our missions in China flew the flag at half mast on the day when remains of the victims were returned to China. So we have done what we can to express our deep and sincere sorrow and our remorse, our embarrassment, our contrition at this accident.

MS. LILLY: Now, will the U.S. be meeting China's demands for a formal apology and investigation into what occurred, and punishment perhaps of those responsible?

DR. SHIRK: Well, we are responding in what we feel to be the appropriate way. As I mentioned just now, we have expressed our feelings, our apologies and our condolences as best we can. Then we are going on to do this investigation, as Secretary Cohen explained last week. And this investigation is important for us and for our own people, as well as for the Chinese, because it is very difficult to believe that such a tragic accident could occur. And we want to understand why it happened, and we also want to make sure it doesn't happen again. So we are definitely going to get to the bottom of it, and we are going to communicate the results.

As to punishing the criminal or the personal responsible, Secretary Cohen did not preclude that, but we will have to wait to see what turns up in the investigation.

MS. LILLY: All right. And how do you assess the Chinese reaction to these events?

DR. SHIRK: Well, it was obviously a very strong emotional reaction, and I understand that very well, because most of the people in China believe, and have been told, that it was intentional. Now, if I saw that some other country bombed innocent journalists and diplomats in one of our embassies, I would be absolutely furious as well. So I understand the reaction. I can empathize with the reaction. But I hope that when we get the facts out and explain that, as unbelievable as it may be, this really was an accident, that some of the very strong feelings will cool, and people will remember why it is in the interests of both China and the United States to have a decent relationship with one another.

MS. LILLY: Well, why do you think there continues to be a widespread misunderstanding about what happened in Belgrade to the Chinese Embassy?

DR. SHIRK: Well, I have to say one reason is that, as I read Chinese media reports, they're based on the assumption that it was intentional. And that's kind of frustrating to us, frankly, because at least it seems to me people ought to keep an open mind and look at the facts and see whether they believe it was intentional or not. A second reason is that there --you know, people in China are very proud, and this accident first of all was in the context of a military conflict that they don't support --they don't agree with what we are doing in Yugoslavia. And, secondly, there are still some very deep suspicions in both our countries towards one another, and a lack of willingness to trust that the intentions are benign rather than malign.

So I think all of these things are factors. And, again, as I said, our hope is that when the facts are out, even though it may be kind of incredible that such an accident could occur on the part of the United States, that I hope that people will recognize it was an honest mistake.

MS. LILLY: Now, what impact do you think all of this will have on U.S.-China relations?

DR. SHIRK: Well, obviously in the short term it's something of a shock, even a crisis in U.S.-China relations, meaning that the PRC government has broken off cooperation with the United States in pretty much every area. Visits have been canceled, ship visits, military-to-military exchanges --discussions of all the various issues that we have been working on, ranging from non-proliferation, human rights, whatever. And on the other hand, I am encouraged that these are being postponed and not scrapped permanently. So we hope that when emotions are calm that we will get back to cooperation.

In the long term I hope that this tragic accident doesn't deflect our two countries from the efforts we have been making over the past few years to work together in a way that really is good not just for the people of our two countries, but people in Asia, other countries as well. Because if the U.S. and China can work together, all sorts of good things can be accomplished, and to the contrary if we have a hostile relationship it would be a very dangerous situation for all of us.

MS. LILLY: Well, how does the prospect for China's accession to the World Trade Organization and the talks on this issue between the U.S. and China, how does what happened in Belgrade and the ensuing problems, how does this affect that?

DR. SHIRK: Well, it has affected them in the short term, because we had hoped to be back at the negotiating table again this week, and we are not, because the Chinese government has basically told our negotiators not to come. On the other hand, we are encouraged that the government --Premier Zhu Rongji and all the leaders --have signaled that China still wants to join the WTO. They would like to see it happen this year. And of course on our side President Clinton has committed us to bringing China into the WTO this year, so that in November when we have a WTO ministerial the Chinese trade minister will be there. So that will is still there. I expect that after a couple of weeks we will be back at the negotiating table, and that's certainly what we hope will happen.

MS. LILLY: Now, what is at stake in U.S.-China relations? We've talked here a little bit about some of the things that have been postponed and some of the problems. What is at stake specifically with U.S.-China relations?

DR. SHIRK: Well, frankly, I think we can't exaggerate the significance of this relationship. I know officials in the United States have said many times it's the most important foreign policy relationship for the United States, and there are people in China who have said the same thing about China's relationship with the United States. You know, with the end of the Cold War there is such a potential here for reduction of tension, for us to channel our energies and resources in all countries, including the U.S. and China, into productive activities, into improving the health and welfare of our people. Rather than arms buildups and mutual suspicions and risk of conflict, including nuclear conflict. So it's wonderful to think that our children --there's a chance our children will grow up in a world in which they don't have those fears.

Now, if the United States and China can learn to et along, to work on problems like the Korean Peninsula, a peaceful and nonnuclear Korean Peninsula, prevention of a nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan, preserving peace in the Asia-Pacific region --you know, this is so clearly the positive potential here in U.S.-China relations, and we hope that we are able to achieve it.

MS. LILLY: Well, what are some of the things each country can do to help move beyond this terrible accident and to further its own national interests?

DR. SHIRK: Well, first of all, on our part we are determined not to let this horrible accident which we were responsible for deflect us from our course of working together with China to build toward a constructive strategic partnership. We want to get back to discussion of all these different issues we are working on together. We want to continue to have high level visits. We want to have military-to-military cooperation, and we are determined to do that.

From China's side, I think it would be very helpful if the press rhetoric were a little more open minded. If everyone jumps to conclusion that what we did was intentional, of course what that means is that the President of the United States authorized the bombing of the Chinese Embassy. I mean, this is so contrary to everything that we are trying to accomplish. There is just no reason for us ever to want to do something like that, and it violates all the international norms. So I hope that the press reports will be a little more open minded. I certainly hope that once we communicate the results, the findings of our review, the Chinese government will also communicate those to the Chinese people, and then again get back to work with us building towards a partnership as soon as possible.

MS. LILLY: Well, in the wake of this tragedy, while the emotions are still high, is there anything that can be done so that the two countries can work through this and work together?

DR. SHIRK: Well, I think it's important that the people of both countries keep a long-term perspective, and remember why our leaders and our governments were working so hard, why President Jiang came to the United States, why President Clinton visited China, why Premier Zhu came here. These leaders were putting a lot on the line, because all of them believed that it was in the interests of their own people to have a decent constructive relationship with China or with the United States. So there were good reasons, and those reasons are still valid.

MS. LILLY: All right, now, is NATO intervention in Kosovo, Yugoslavia a precedent for future interventions in other countries, including China?

DR. SHIRK: Well, I know this is a question that many people in China are asking, and it certainly is not. The situation in Yugoslavia was uniquely dangerous. It does not imply any precedent of future intervention. The ethnic cleansing, the atrocities and terror that the Serbian government under Milosevic was inflicting upon their own people, the Albanians in Kosovo, was really atrocious, and it was a threat to the stability of that whole region. And that was the conclusion that NATO came to. And so the intervention was taken under very extreme and special circumstances.

It is impossible that we would intervene in a country like China to, say, change the way China treats the Tibetans. I mean, this would never occur, because although we have some critiques of the way the Chinese government handles the Tibetan autonomous region, we would like to see greater religious freedom, cultural expression for the Tibetans there, and we discuss this with people in the Chinese government from Jiang Zemin on down. But we are handling this in a completely peaceful way through diplomacy. And in any case, China has a nuclear deterrent. I don't think anybody is going to intervene in China militarily, because the risk would be too great.

MS. LILLY: Well, in October 1997, President Jiang visited the U.S., and in early April the Chinese premier was in Washington and New York, and a number of other cities in the United States. Also, our U.S. Commerce Secretary Daley led a U.S. business delegation to China. How important were those high-level visits to U.S.-China relations, and how will they help us this time?

DR. SHIRK: Well, we have used high level visits to try to deepen understanding and drive tangible cooperation in U.S.-China relations, because they're useful, what we call action-forcing events. You know, if we know that the President or vice President are going to go to China, we are going to accelerate our efforts to come to some conclusions in the various talks we're having on non-proliferation or human rights or trade or environment or law enforcement. So they kind of punctuate our continuous discussions and drive progress. Plus, people pay attention --the publics pay attention when senior leaders are visiting one another, and this helps build support from the public for mutual engagement, which is important.

And finally, in all countries the commitment of our leaders to a foreign policy relationship and the ability of the leaders to understand each other as human beings, as individuals, is also very important. And I think it's very significant that President Clinton and President Jiang, as well as Premier Zhu, have really developed a good understanding with one another. And that helps provide some of the glue that may keep this relationship together, even though we are going through some rocky times right now.

MS. LILLY: You spoke of events and exchanges that have been postponed because of the accidental bombing. What about when do you think those high level visits, or even those events and exchanges, might occur?

DR. SHIRK: I hope soon. Really it's up to the Chinese government. We're ready. We'll get on airplanes with --give us a little bit of notice --pack our bags and we'll be there. And I hope it occurs soon, because if there is too long a delay --I mean, we understand this is a mourning period. It's natural to call these things off for a certain period of time --so that's fine. But I hope it's not too long, because the kind of progress we've made and the understandings that we have built up have taken a lot of mutual effort, and it would really be a shame to waste it and let it wither away. And we do that really at the jeopardy of the people of both our countries.

MS. LILLY: Now, in your opinion how should the U.S. and China work together to build constructive bilateral relations from here? What are some of our common interests?

DR. SHIRK: We actually have a lot of common interests. In fact, there are no major conflicts of interests. I mean, there is no reason why the United States and China --as China grows stronger and more active in the world --should not work together very cooperatively. We both want a peaceful nonnuclear Korean Peninsula. We have been working together very well in the four-party talks and trying to encourage restraint on North Korea's part in its nuclear program, its missile program. So that has actually been going very, very well, and I hope that will continue.

We have similar perspectives on South Asia. In fact, when the Indian government tested a nuclear weapon, and Pakistan responded with its own, China and the United States led the Security Council --actually, China led, and the U.S. helped China --supported China and coordinated efforts within the Security Council to devise a direction to try to prevent a nuclear arms race in South Asia.

I think our efforts in the Middle East also are pretty closely aligned, because we are both big oil importers, and neither country really wants conflict in the Persian Gulf-Middle East area.

So the environment --you know, we both are major contributors to global warming, we both have an interest in having a clean global environment for our children in the next century. So our economies are highly complementary, and we have a lot to benefit from trading with one another. And so it seems to me that there are differences in political systems, difference in perceptions based on history and culture. But if we can overcome them then there is no reason we shouldn't be able to work together very well.

MS. LILLY: And, quickly, our shared --we have shared goals --we talked about that. What are some of those challenges that will require diplomacy, that sort of diplomacy that will keep us together with those shared goals?

DR. SHIRK: Well, I think the challenges I just mentioned right now, the fact that we do have different histories, different political systems, different cultural perspectives. And unfortunately in both countries there are still people who are prepared to think the worst of one another, who just assume that the other is a natural enemy. And I think that --you know, I've heard my Chinese colleagues say that's a legacy of the Cold War, and I think in some ways that's correct. So there are these conceptual and perceptual problems that we need to overcome.

But I think we have made a lot of progress over the past few years. This terrible tragic accident that we are responsible for is a real --and the Chinese reaction to it --is a real setback. But I'm still optimistic. I've been traveling to China, working with China since 1971. I've seen a lot of changes and ebbs and flows, and I still expect that we are going to come closer together and work together quite well in the future.

MS. LILLY: Well, we are out of time, believe it or not. And I want to thank you, and all of you in our audience today --Dr. Shirk, also for taking the time for being with us here on Worldnet's "Dialogue." I'm Judlyne Lilly. Until next time, good day.

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