Presidential Election -- Three-stage Process

Presidential Election Will Be Three-stage Process

Primaries, conventions, campaigning involved

By Stuart Gorin
USIA Political Affairs Correspondent
Date: 01/13/92

Washington -- The U.S. presidential election campaign began more slowly than usual this time, but that is rapidly changing: there are now more than half a dozen candidates for the job, issues are being debated and programs presented, and within a month the first formal steps in the nearly yearlong election process will take place.

As in past quadrennials, it will be a three-stage process to determine who is to lead the United States during the next four years.

Stage one consists of primary elections or party caucuses in the 50 states and the District of Columbia involving a list of candidates in each of the major political parties. Stage two is the Democratic and Republican national nominating conventions, where each party's choice of candidate is formalized. And in the final stage, the nominated candidates spend two months criss-crossing the nation seeking votes in the November 3 national election.

It is, in the view of veteran political observer Thomas Mann of the Brookings Institution, "a complex process that is constantly changing." Questions arise concerning individual candidates or issues that a month or two earlier would not have been considered a factor in the election or even thought about, Mann says.

In all, it will be a solid year of speeches, rallies, media blitzes, advertising, slogans, and campaign promises frequently unkept. At stake is not only the presidency but also 12 state governorships, 35 Senate seats and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives.

The Democrats control both houses of Congress by significant margins, and there is no reason to believe the Republicans can gain control of either one regardless of the outcome of the presidential race. In the first 165 years of America's history, one political party or another simultaneously controlled both the Congress and the presidency during all but 14 years. But 35 years ago voter philosophy changed, and since then in all but 12 years there has been a split form of government between the Democrats and Republicans. Opinion polls show that now most voters prefer this system of checks and balances between the two branches of government.

Traditionally, the election campaign begins in Iowa, where this time, on February 10, citizens throughout the state will gather in precinct caucuses to publicly declare their support for a presidential candidate. In a complicated formula of percentages, the candidates win a prorated number of delegates to county and state conventions who will then select committed delegates to the national nominating conventions. National attention is focused on the Iowa caucuses as the first test of the pulse of American voters.

Eight days later, the first primary election will be held in New Hampshire and the grueling pace will continue until June 2, when California and four other states end the primary and caucus season. The so-called "Super Tuesday" occurs March 10, when 11 states, many of them in the South, hold their events.

Even though President Bush has not yet officially announced his candidacy for re-election, he has taken the steps necessary to be listed on primary ballots, and his office says the formal declaration will be made soon. Bush does not have the luxury of automatically regaining the Republican nomination; he will have to fight for it since he is being challenged by conservative columnist and commentator Pat Buchanan and by former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke. Duke is running without the blessing of the Republican Party, which in many states is attempting to keep his name off the ballot.

There are five major candidates on the Democratic side: Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey, former California Governor Jerry Brown and former Massachusetts Senator Paul Tsongas. All are well-known in their home states but have little national reputation.

More publicity was generated by political figures who announced they would not be candidates than by those who did. New York Governor Mario Cuomo headed this list, which also included civil rights leader Jesse Jackson, a former presidential candidate.

One announced candidate, Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder, withdrew from the running, citing a need to help his state battle the recession. Several more are expected to drop out along the primary trail and most likely, by the time of the nominating conventions, one candidate in each party will have enough commitments from state delegations to be assured of nomination.

But that scenario does not exempt the Democrats from their past history of long, drawn out primary battles. What party leaders would like to see is one candidate pull ahead early and guarantee himself the nomination by the middle of the primary season, which would enable the nominee to get an early start in the general campaign.

By March 17, half of the delegates to the nominating conventions will have been selected in various state primaries. The Democratic Party uses a proportional system in every state, and the percentage of delegates committed to a specific candidate is relative to his popular vote. On the other hand, the Republicans use the winner-take-all system of committing all delegates to whoever wins the state primary.

The role of the conventions -- this time in New York City in mid-July for the Democrats and in Houston in mid-August for the Republicans -- has been reduced in stature over the years, with the nominees who have been victorious in the primary process being elected on the first ballots of the role call of states. The conventions now are concerned primarily with approving the policy platforms, accepting the nominees' choices of a vice-presidential running mate, and offering a national stage for their party's candidates and programs.

The Labor Day weekend at the beginning of September traditionally marks the beginning of the campaign for the two parties' nominees and their constant travel, accompanied by a large press corps. Occasionally they will cross paths, especially to compete in a nationally televised debate arranged by a non-partisan organization. These give voters an opportunity to compare the nominees' views on a variety of issues.

Most political observers believe that the overriding issue for the 1992 campaign will be the state of the U.S. economy, which is currently in a recession. No one knows for sure what it will be like toward the end of the campaign year, but it is generally presumed that the incumbent party would have an easier time of retaining control of the White House if the economy does not get worse around that time.

At all levels of government, from local through national, the candidates spend huge amounts of time and money campaigning for votes from a very small group of people, the so-called "swing voters." Political analyst Harrison Hickman, who owns his own research firm, says that in advance of many previous elections, 45 percent were considered likely to vote Republican and 40 percent Democratic. That leaves only 15 percent undecided, Hickman says, and therefore the only real targets of the candidates' chase for votes. It is carried out with great intensity, and when November 3 finally arrives and the balloting is done, the excitement and hoopla of campaigning will be over -- until the next time.